Falcons @ Buccaneers Picks & Props

Bucky Irving returned to Tampa Bay's lineup in Week 13 after missing two months. While he will get most of touches, don't expect the Bucs to phase out Rachaad White who impressed with his hard-running style and blocking in Irving's absence. Between Weeks 5 and 11, White averaged 44.7 rushing yards per game. He was the more efficient runner last week, rushing for 53 yards on 11 carries while Irving had 55 yards on 15 attempts. Expect the Bucs to use both backs against a Falcons defense that is 26th in the league in success rate against the run and allows 131.0 rushing yards per game. 

Baker Mayfield has thrown for less than 200 yards with 30 or fewer pass attempts in five of his last six games. What's especially concerning about those numbers is that he played with a negative game script in three of those contests. Mayfield may be more efficient at home on Thursday night but I expect his passing volume to remain low. The Bucs recently got a boost with the return of RB Bucky Irving and they could lean on their ground game against an Atlanta D that is 26th in the league in success rate against the run. Especially if they get up big early, which they might do as 4.5-point home favorites against the struggling Falcons.

Bijan Robinson might have a tough time finding room on the ground against a stingy Bucs run defense. That said, Atlanta still needs to get the ball into the hands of its best player and the passing game might be the way to do that Robinson had just two catches for eight yards last week. However, he has eclipsed this number in eight of his previous 10 games. He's averaging 46.3 receiving yards per game and Tampa Bay has been vulnerable against pass-catching backs. The Bucs are 31st in DVOA against running backs while allowing a league-high 53.9 receiving yards per game to the position.

Tampa Bay is usually atop the run stop units in the NFL and 2025 has been no different, except for the past month or so. The Bucs have been busted on the ground, watching their average yards allowed per carry go from 3.9 to 4.7 since Week 10. Tampa went from No. 3 in EPA allowed per carry to 22nd in that metric the past five games. Robinson has run 20 or more times in three of last four since Cousins came in at QB, going for 86 yards or more in those contests. The one game he rushed just 14 times he still picked up 70 yards on the ground. Projections for Bijan sits as high as 82 and 84 yards and the Bucs have some run stoppers banged-up at linebacker.

Mayfield has rushed for 19 or more yards in seven of 13 games this season, including four straight, and this is also a solid matchup against Atlanta. The Falcons have surrendered the ninth-most yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks, and nine signal callers have rushed for 20-plus yards through 13 games. Additionally, Mayfield’s 33 scramble rushes are the seventh most, and he also ranks fourth in PFF running grade among quarterbacks. He’s scampered for a high-end 6.6 yards per tote and 5.42 yards after contact per attempt, too.

The Bucs are allowing a league-high 53.9 receiving yards per game to the RB position. Robinson is third on the Falcons in receiving yards, averaging 46.3 yards per game. Specific to this number of 36.5, he’s topped it in nine of 13 games. He tends to have a high ceiling, as he’s hit 50+ receiving yards in six games, including in a Week 1 matchup vs Tampa Bay where he reached 100 receiving yards.

The Falcons are coming off a 37-9 loss to Seattle and they are 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games. With QB Michael Penix and No. 1 WR Drake London sidelined, this team has collapsed. The only thing Atlanta's offense is able to do is run the ball, but Tampa Bay is fourth in the league in defensive rush EPA and success rate. The Falcons rank 24th in defensive success rate, and the Bucs are getting healthy on offense. RB Bucky Irving returned in Wk 13 after a two-month absence and Pro Bowl LT Tristan Wirfs should be back on TNF after missing Sunday. The Bucs desperately need a win to stay atop the NFC South, and they'll get it in emphatic fashion against a Falcons squad that has quit on Raheem Morris.

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.. The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.92 seconds per snap.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.. Baker Mayfield's 196.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents a significant reduction in his throwing proficiency over last season's 274.0 rate.

The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 55.3% pass rate.. Tampa Bay's defense ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year as it relates to making interceptions, accumulating 0.95 per game.. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been tremendous this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

The Falcons are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.25 seconds per play.. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually cause better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.. Darnell Mooney has run a route on 93.1% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. The predictive model expects Darnell Mooney to earn 6.8 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile among WRs.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume.. The Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass game stats across the board.. The Atlanta cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst CB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume.. The Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass game stats across the board.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume.. The Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass game stats across the board.

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the most run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 44.7% run rate.. The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.25 seconds per play.

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run on 46.6% of their downs: the 8th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.. With an impressive tally of 7.1 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (97th percentile), Baker Mayfield ranks among the best rushing QBs in football this year.. Baker Mayfield profiles as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging an excellent 3.07 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 100th percentile.. This year, the deficient Falcons run defense has conceded a whopping 132.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 7th-worst in the NFL.

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run on 46.6% of their downs: the 8th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.. This year, the deficient Falcons run defense has conceded a whopping 132.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 7th-worst in the NFL.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Atlanta's group of DTs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.

The Falcons are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually cause better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to accumulate 1.5 carries in this contest, on average: the 2nd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Kirk Cousins is not a mobile QB and has accounted for a mere 2.1% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 2nd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.. The Buccaneers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.