Strange comes back from the IR to face this porous Cardinals pass defense and will be TE1 with Hunter Long out for Week 12. In his first four games of the season, Strange was Trevor Lawrences’s favorite option, drawing four or more targets for three or more receptions in those outings. Strange is projected for closer to four catches and his receptions prop total has jumped to 3.5 at many books. In his first game back after a week of limited practice, I’ll pay a little extra to get the Over 2.5 grabs knowing the ceiling is higher.
Travis Etienne can strike on the ground and through the air for the Jaguars. He scored twice in last week’s blowout over the Chargers and now faces a Arizona defense tied for the fourth most rushing TDs allowed on the season. Etienne is tied for the fourth most red zone carries. His touchdown price is as high as -155 but you can find the low just short of EVEN money -105.
Liam Coen stressed last week the importance of getting that rushing attack going, and I’m expecting more of the same. It opened up the play-action game for Trevor Lawrence, who posted his best QBR against the Chargers since Week 6.
The Cardinals have allowed just six runs of 20+ yards this season, yet they’re allowing 4.3 yards a carry. Christian McCaffrey had a strong day against them last week, and the game before saw the Seahawks rush for 181 yards and two touchdowns.
Jacoby Brissett and the offense are struggling with turnovers as well of late, and that’s an area where the Jaguars thrive. This defense is highly opportunistic, and giving Jacksonville a short field on offense will make things even easier. Plus the Jaguar pass rush should cause issues against a very poor Arizona offensive line.
There are plenty of moving parts in this matchup, with uncertainty in both the Arizona backfield and Jacksonville’s receiver group. What we do know is Marvin Harrison Jr. is out again, and Jacoby Brissett isn’t shy about pushing the ball downfield. Brissett and Michael Wilson connected for 185 yards last week against San Francisco. Wilson didn’t score, but with the injuries in the backfield and Trey McBride drawing most of the defensive attention, he has a real chance to grab his second touchdown of the season as Arizona’s de facto No. 1 wideout. I’d play this down to +180. McBride sitting at -130 to score is wild.
The Over is 5-1 in Arizona's last six, and 4-0 in Jacksonville's road games this season. Those trends should continue.
Both teams struggle to protect the goal line when opponents breach the red zone. Jacksonville's secondary is still giving up big plays too often, while the Cardinals are struggling to stop the run and keep turning the ball over in bad spots.
Arizona's offense will put up some numbers, with an offense ranked fifth in third down conversion rate and 11th in completion rate. I like both teams to clear the 24-point threshold and push this total Over.
Jacksonville still has its sights set on the playoffs, and got the run game going against the Chargers. It's an area where Arizona struggles defensively, especially recently.
The Jaguars will follow the script of the 49ers and Seahawks, and look to run the ball while setting up play action. They'll also capitalize on turnovers, with the Cardinals coughing it up five times in the last two games.
Jacksonville has been favored three times this season, and covered twice with a push. I'll back them to keep the playoff push going against a Cardinal team that has little left to play for.
The Cardinals will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.5% red zone pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Arizona Cardinals have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.1 plays per game.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by our trusted projection set to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.. The most plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars this year (a colossal 61.5 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.8 per game) this year.. Travis Etienne has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 11.9% this year, which ranks him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (61.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jacksonville Jaguars.. The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The most plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars this year (a colossal 61.5 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.8 per game) this year.
Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.0% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jacksonville Jaguars.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by our trusted projection set to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.. The most plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars this year (a colossal 61.5 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.8 per game) this year.
Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.0% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jacksonville Jaguars.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by our trusted projection set to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.. The most plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars this year (a colossal 61.5 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.8 per game) this year.
The Cardinals will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.. Jacoby Brissett has passed for many more adjusted yards per game (236.0) this season than he did last season (126.0).
Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.0% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jacksonville Jaguars.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by our trusted projection set to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.. The most plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars this year (a colossal 61.5 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.8 per game) this year.
The Cardinals will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Arizona Cardinals have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.1 plays per game.. The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.
The Cardinals will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Arizona Cardinals have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.1 plays per game.. The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.
The Cardinals will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Arizona Cardinals have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.1 plays per game.. The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.
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