New England @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 69.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.8% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.7 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.

At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric team in football in the red zone (59.3% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Patriots. Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. After accruing -3.0 air yards per game last year, Rhamondre Stevenson has shown good development this year, now sitting at 10.0 per game. Rhamondre Stevenson's 16.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 86th percentile for RBs. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-centric team in football in the red zone (59.6% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Patriots. Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to run the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may decline. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year. The Bengals pass defense has been torched for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (88.8%) to RBs this year (88.8%).

The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 69.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.8% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.7 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-centric team in football in the red zone (59.6% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Patriots. Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to run the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may decline. With an impressive 22.2% Red Zone Target% (89th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs ranks as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL. Stefon Diggs rates in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 51.3 figure this year.

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-centric team in football in the red zone (59.6% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Patriots. Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to run the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may decline. Hunter Henry has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.2% this year, which ranks in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs. Hunter Henry has notched a staggering 38.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among TEs.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 69.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.8% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.7 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-centric team in football in the red zone (59.6% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Patriots. Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to run the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may decline. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year. This year, the poor Bengals defense has surrendered a whopping 2.40 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the biggest rate in the league.