Dallas @ Las Vegas Picks & Props

The Raiders rank 2nd in the NFL at defending QB scrambles. 

Williams has run the seventh most routes among all running backs but saw his receiving role dwindle the last two games due to Dallas falling behind quickly and being forced to pass downfield. Williams, who was targeted three or more times in six of his first seven games, saw just three total targets in one-sided losses to Denver and Arizona. But with the Boys expected to lead in Vegas, Williams’ involvement in the passing game will peak again. Player models for MNF range from 2.3 to 2.9 receptions for Williams, who knows this foe well from his days with Denver. In fact, Williams drew 25 total targets for 18 receptions in his last four games against Las Vegas defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.

Pickens has drawn nine targets in each of his last two games and has registered nine or more targets in six of his nine games overall this season. Those have added up 68 yards or more in seven of those outings. With a tall total for Monday Night Football, bookies are bracing for a surplus of offense from Dallas. The Cowboys take on a Vegas secondary running one of the highest rates of zone coverage in the NFL and Pickens currently ranks No. 9 among all WRs versus zone at PFF. The Raiders sit in the middle of the road in many pass defense measurements, but have been burned by opponents’ second options, ranking No. 25 in DVOA versus WR2 at FTN. Pickens is the best WR2 in the league and his Week 11 projections all north of his receiving yards total (most leaning toward 70 yards).

Las Vegas offensive coordinator Chip Kelly spoke to the media ahead of this Monday night matchup, emphasizing the importance of Bowers and explaining why the TE didn’t see many passes his way on TNF (the plays LV took sacks were designed for Bowers). With a mini bye following the loss to Denver and an extra rest day for MNF, this is the healthiest Bowers has been in a long time. The Raiders take on a poor pass defense from Dallas, which sits neat the bottom of most defensive metrics. The Cowboys run a high rate of zone coverage and Bowers is at his best finding seams in the zone and doing damage after the catch. His Week 11 projections range from 5.5 to 6.6 catches but considering his improved health, increased involvement, and defensive matchups, I see him putting in a busy night on Monday.

Lockett has a lot of trust in Geno Smith from their Seattle days, and Tre Tucker is not a heavy-volume wide receiver. In his first game last week with the Silver and Black, Lockett played just 59% of the snaps and led the team in targets (six), receptions (five), and yards (44). Those numbers could be improved on Monday night indoors versus this defense, and the ladder potential is real here.

There’s only one matchup that makes me interested in the Raiders’ passing game — and it’s against the Cowboys. The +370 price certainly helps. Tyler Lockett, in just his second game with Las Vegas, saw six targets for 44 yards in last week’s 10–7 loss. He already has chemistry with Geno Smith from their Seattle days, and with Jakobi Meyers traded, the Raiders are thin at wide receiver. Lockett tied for the team lead in route share at 79% and was on the field for nearly every three-wide set in Week 10. It’s a long shot, but I like backing WR2s at +300 or better, especially against a pass-funnel defense like Dallas. Lockett is also the only Raiders receiver to see a red-zone target over the last two games.

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.. This year, the shaky Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded a staggering 276.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 2nd-worst in the league.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. The model projects Dak Prescott to throw 35.3 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-most among all quarterbacks.. Dak Prescott checks in as one of the best quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a fantastic 255.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see only 125.9 plays on offense called: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.. The leading projections forecast Geno Smith to attempt 32.3 passes in this game, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all QBs.. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Las Vegas Raiders grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. This week, Jake Ferguson is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 98th percentile among TEs with 7.6 targets.. After totaling 26.0 air yards per game last season, Jake Ferguson has undergone big improvement this season, currently boasting 35.0 per game.

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.. This year, the feeble Dallas Cowboys defense has been torched for a whopping 46.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the most in football.

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their typical approach.. The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year.. CeeDee Lamb's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 68.6% to 65.1%.. CeeDee Lamb's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, totaling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.67 mark last year.

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.. The Cowboys defense has yielded the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (177.0) vs. WRs this year.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Javonte Williams's 59.1% Route% this season conveys a significant boost in his pass game usage over last season's 44.1% mark.. In this week's game, Javonte Williams is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.8 targets.

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their typical approach.. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. Dak Prescott has rushed for a lot more yards per game (14.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).. Dak Prescott's ground efficiency has been refined this year, notching 5.46 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to just 4.48 figure last year.. The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles grade out as the 5th-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in football (149 per game) versus the Cowboys defense this year.. The Cowboys linebackers project as the worst group of LBs in the NFL this year with their run defense.