Detroit @ Washington Picks & Props

The Washington Commanders may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota. The Commanders are a huge 8-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. At the moment, the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders. With a sizeable 33.3% Red Zone Target Rate (98th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel Sr. stands among the wideouts with the highest volume near the goal line in the league. After totaling 37.0 air yards per game last season, Deebo Samuel Sr. has seen marked improvement this season, currently pacing 42.0 per game.

The Washington Commanders may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota. The Commanders are a huge 8-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. At the moment, the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders. This year, the anemic Detroit Lions defense has yielded a whopping 2.00 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL. The Detroit Lions linebackers grade out as the best unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.

With an extraordinary 16.7% Red Zone Target Rate (95th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs places as one of the RB receiving threats with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL. Jahmyr Gibbs's 94.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a noteable growth in his pass-catching skills over last season's 82.3% mark. With an outstanding rate of 0.10 per game through the air (76th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs ranks among the top receiving TD-scorers in football among RBs this year. This year, the feeble Washington Commanders defense has given up a colossal 74.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst rate in the league. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Washington's LB corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in football.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up quite a few more air yards this season (75.0 per game) than he did last season (68.0 per game). Amon-Ra St. Brown's 74.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 62.4. Amon-Ra St. Brown comes in as one of the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in a remarkable 82.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 96th percentile among WRs. With an exceptional ratio of 0.70 per game through the air (98th percentile), Amon-Ra St. Brown has been as one of the top receiving TD-scorers in football among wide receivers this year. This year, the weak Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded a massive 68.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-largest rate in football.

Sam LaPorta rates in the 89th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) with a staggering 38.0 mark this year. Sam LaPorta's 87.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a noteable gain in his receiving prowess over last year's 77.8% rate. Sam LaPorta grades out in the 75th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.30 per game. This year, the shaky Commanders pass defense has given up a massive 82.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 6th-worst rate in football. This year, the feeble Washington Commanders defense has conceded a staggering 0.67 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing TEs: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

The Washington Commanders may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota. The Commanders are a huge 8-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. At the moment, the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders. Zach Ertz has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.8% this year, which ranks in the 88th percentile among tight ends. When talking about air yards, Zach Ertz ranks in the lofty 89th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a remarkable 37.0 per game.

The Washington Commanders may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota. The Commanders are a huge 8-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. At the moment, the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders. The Detroit Lions linebackers grade out as the best unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.