New England @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year. This year, the weak Buccaneers pass defense has given up a staggering 90.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the largest rate in football.

With a remarkable 12.9% Red Zone Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Rachaad White rates among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume near the end zone in the league. Rachaad White ranks as one of the best possession receivers in the league among running backs, catching an excellent 91.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile. This year, the feeble New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered a staggering 88.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-highest rate in the league. This year, the strong New England Patriots run defense has conceded a mere 0.33 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate. With an impressive 23.7% Red Zone Target Rate (87th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places among the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in the league. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year. Stefon Diggs's 85.5% Adjusted Catch% this year shows a significant gain in his receiving proficiency over last year's 73.7% rate.

This year, the porous New England Patriots defense has surrendered a massive 75.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL. This year, the strong New England Patriots run defense has conceded a mere 0.33 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.

While Cade Otton has received 3.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Tampa Bay's passing offense near the goal line in this contest at 16.3%. This year, the porous New England Patriots defense has surrendered a massive 75.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL. This year, the strong New England Patriots run defense has conceded a mere 0.33 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate. Hunter Henry has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.1% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among TEs. When talking about air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the towering 94th percentile among TEs this year, accumulating a striking 39.0 per game. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year. With an excellent rate of 0.36 per game through the air (86th percentile), Hunter Henry places as one of the top receiving TD-scorers in the NFL among TEs this year.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

Baker Mayfield has not tried to carry the ball himself in the red zone at all this year. With a dreadful rate of only 0.00 TDs on the ground per game (2nd percentile), Baker Mayfield has been among the bottom running quarterbacks in the NFL this year. This year, the porous New England Patriots defense has surrendered a massive 75.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL. This year, the strong New England Patriots run defense has conceded a mere 0.33 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.