Baltimore @ Minnesota Picks & Props

A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -4-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 61.8% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the most pass-centric team in the NFL in the red zone (64.1% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.1 per game) this year.

The model projects the Ravens to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. While Zay Flowers has been responsible for 17.4% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Baltimore's offense near the goal line in this week's game at 23.7%. Zay Flowers slots into the 94th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) with an impressive 68.3 mark this year. Zay Flowers's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 65.7% to 77.7%.

A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -4.5-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 62.2% of their downs: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the most pass-centric team in the NFL in the red zone (64.1% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.1 per game) this year.

The model projects the Ravens to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Mark Andrews's 34.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the league: 84th percentile for tight ends. With an impressive ratio of 0.40 per game through the air (89th percentile), Mark Andrews has been as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among TEs this year. The Vikings defense has been torched for the 6th-most receiving touchdowns in football to TEs: 0.62 per game this year.

The model projects the Ravens to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Lamar Jackson's throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 67.6% to 72.6%. With an excellent rate of 2.00 per game (98th percentile), Lamar Jackson places among the leading TD throwers in the NFL this year.

A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -4.5-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 62.2% of their downs: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the most pass-centric team in the NFL in the red zone (64.1% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.1 per game) this year.

The model projects the Ravens to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Derrick Henry has posted a whopping 2.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among RBs. (That may not seem like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -4.5-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 62.2% of their downs: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the most pass-centric team in the NFL in the red zone (64.1% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.1 per game) this year.

A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -4.5-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 62.2% of their downs: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the most pass-centric team in the NFL in the red zone (64.1% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.1 per game) this year.