Kansas City @ Jacksonville Picks & Props

Right now, the most pass-centric offense in the NFL (69.9% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in football. With a terrific ratio of 1.75 per game (90th percentile), Patrick Mahomes stands as one of the leading TD passers in the NFL this year. Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in football (0.25 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The predictive model expects Brenton Strange to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the goal line in this week's contest (14.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played). Brenton Strange has totaled far more air yards this year (33.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The Jacksonville offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

Right now, the most pass-centric offense in the NFL (69.9% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in football. Isiah Pacheco ranks in the 91st percentile among running backs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.25 per game. The rushing touchdown field reads "0" on Isiah Pacheco's box scores this year.

Right now, the most pass-centric offense in the NFL (69.9% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in football. Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in football (0.25 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The Jacksonville offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all pass game statistics across the board. Travis Etienne grades out in the 87th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.20 per game.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The Jacksonville offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all pass game statistics across the board. The running touchdown line reads "0" on the back of Trevor Lawrence's trading card this year.

Right now, the most pass-centric offense in the NFL (69.9% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in football. With an elite 16.0% Red Zone Target Rate (83rd percentile) this year, Travis Kelce has been as one of the tight ends with the most usage near the goal line in the league. Travis Kelce ranks in the 81st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a fantastic 0.25 per game.