Kansas City @ Jacksonville Picks & Props

The Chiefs remain one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league—10th in overall pass rate and 2nd in pass rate over expected. A big reason? Their run game has been shaky dating back to last season. That’s opened the door for rookie RB Brashard Smith, who continues to earn more reps each week but can still contribute in the passing game.  His snap share jumped to 25% last week, and he turned 4 carries and 4 targets into 36 total yards, including a red-zone target. Andy Reid said he’s looking to get Smith “into spots where he can do some things”—and that’s exactly what I want to see in Week 5 on Monday night. With Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt ahead of him, Smith still has a path to leapfrog one (or both) if Reid trusts him in high-leverage spots. It’s a tough matchup against a sneaky-good Jags defense, but if Smith is getting any red-zone usage, this offense has the creativity to get him the ball in space. 

The Chiefs let the AFC know that they’re still the conference champs with a shit kicking of the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4. After a challenging start to 2025, the Chiefs have looked like Super Bowl contenders the past six quarters and now travel to Florida for a Monday Night Football matchup with the Jaguars. This is a notable coaching mismatch with Liam Coen and Anthony Campanile going up against Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo. Books opened Kansas City as a 3-point road favorite and I’m snatching this key number up now before the nasty hook shows up later in the week.