Detroit @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

Ever since stubbing their toe in Week 1, the Lions have been on a mission. Detroit has come out firing in the past three games, amassing 62 points in those first halves. That’s improved them to 3-1 ATS versus the 1H spread. Cincinnati, which is 1-3 ATS in 1Hs, steps in front of that freight train on a short week. Over the past two games, the Bengals have had only three drives out of 22 not end in a punt or turnover. The full game is a beefy -10.5 but I’ll take the Lions below a key number of touchdown to own the opening 30 minutes.

The Cincinnati Bengals may throw the ball less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.. This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bengals, who are enormous -10.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Jake Browning to throw 38.0 passes in this contest, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.

The Bengals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.. Jared Goff's 76.1% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a noteable improvement in his throwing accuracy over last season's 72.0% mark.. This year, the poor Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded a whopping 291.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-worst in football.. This year, the poor Bengals defense has allowed the 9th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to the opposing side: a staggering 7.98 yards.. As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Cincinnati's unit has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the league.

The Cincinnati Bengals may throw the ball less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.. This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bengals, who are enormous -10.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Jake Browning to throw 38.0 passes in this contest, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.

The Cincinnati Bengals may throw the ball less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.. This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bengals, who are enormous -10.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this game, Ja'Marr Chase is projected by the predictive model to slot into the 99th percentile among WRs with 11.0 targets.. Ja'Marr Chase has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 31.5% this year, which places him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

The Bengals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.. The leading projections forecast Jahmyr Gibbs to total 5.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Jahmyr Gibbs has been a much bigger part of his team's air attack this year (18.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.4%).. Jahmyr Gibbs's 96.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a noteworthy gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 82.3% figure.. Since the start of last season, the deficient Bengals pass defense has surrendered a whopping 91.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the biggest rate in football.

The Bengals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.. Sam LaPorta has run a route on 81.5% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.. In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is projected by the model to position himself in the 81st percentile among tight ends with 5.2 targets.. Sam LaPorta's 86.2% Adjusted Catch% this season indicates a remarkable growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 77.8% rate.. With an exceptional 9.1 adjusted yards per target (85th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta ranks as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast Chase Brown to accumulate 15.8 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a more integral piece of his team's running game this year (80.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (63.8%).

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have just 126.5 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. Jahmyr Gibbs's 65.2% Snap% this year indicates a noteworthy boost in his offensive volume over last year's 49.6% figure.. Jahmyr Gibbs's 60.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year shows a substantial reduction in his rushing talent over last year's 87.0 figure.. Jahmyr Gibbs's 5.2 adjusted yards per carry this year signifies a substantial decline in his running prowess over last year's 5.9 mark.