Washington @ Los Angeles Picks & Props
WAS vs LAC Picks
NFL Picks
Passing Yards

Jayden Daniels o214.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 242.52 (Over)
EV Model Rating
At the moment, the 10th-least pass-focused team in the league (59.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Commanders.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to call 67.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
Passing Yards

Justin Herbert u267.5 Passing Yards (-118)
Projection 259.76 (Under)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season (69.0% Adjusted Completion%).. The Washington Commanders defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.96 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-fewest in the league.
Receiving Yards

Jacory Croskey-Merritt o7.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 12.81 (Over)
EV Model Rating
At the moment, the 10th-least pass-focused team in the league (59.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Commanders.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to call 67.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
Receiving Yards

Quentin Johnston o59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 66.13 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a whopping 58.8 per game on average).. The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop.. The Washington Commanders defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (36.5 per game) this year.
Rushing Yards

Jayden Daniels o43.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Projection 61.76 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to call 67.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.
Rushing Yards

Justin Herbert o15.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Projection 20.82 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a whopping 58.8 per game on average).. With an exceptional rate of 22.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (75th percentile), Justin Herbert places among the best rushing QBs in the league this year.
Rushing Yards

Omarion Hampton o64.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Projection 71.35 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a whopping 58.8 per game on average).
Rushing Yards

Jacory Croskey-Merritt o30.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 34.21 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to call 67.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.
WAS vs LAC Consensus Picks
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