Dallas @ New York Picks & Props

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in football. This year, the porous Cowboys defense has surrendered a massive 81.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the worst rate in the NFL.

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in football. While Garrett Wilson has garnered 20.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in New York's offense near the goal line in this contest at 33.1%. Garrett Wilson's 86.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 66.4. Garrett Wilson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 67.3% to 74.7%.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced run volume. Javonte Williams's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 78.0% to 94.1%. This year, the porous New York Jets defense has yielded a massive 0.25 TDs through the air per game to opposing running backs: the 8th-largest rate in the NFL.

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in football. This year, the porous Cowboys defense has surrendered a massive 81.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the worst rate in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys defense has given up the most TDs through the air in the NFL: 2.50 per game this year.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced run volume. Dak Prescott's 73.1% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteworthy boost in his throwing accuracy over last year's 65.0% figure. This year, the feeble Jets defense has surrendered a whopping 1.75 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-largest rate in football.

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in football. When it comes to air yards, Breece Hall grades out in the lofty 98th percentile among RBs this year, averaging a massive 10.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards). Breece Hall's 28.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 21.8. Breece Hall's 80.3% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a substantial improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 76.6% mark.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced run volume. George Pickens has compiled a monstrous 104.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile when it comes to WRs. George Pickens's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 59.1% to 67.5%.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced run volume. The leading projections forecast Jake Ferguson to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the goal line in this week's contest (21.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.6% in games he has played). Jake Ferguson has compiled significantly more air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (26.0 per game).