New England @ Miami Picks & Props

In his past four games, we’ve seen him exceed 90 yards on three occasions, have five or more targets every game, and score two touchdowns. At big odds, it’s worth backing the LSU man to get things started this Sunday, too.

Miami was picked apart in the season opener as Daniel Jones completed 22 of his 29 passes for 272 yards and, as long as the Patriots’ O-line can hold up, there should be ample opportunities for Maye to flash his growing connection with Diggs.

Drake Maye completed 30-of-46 passes for 287 yards in Week 1. Maye has now passed for at least 220 yards in five of the last seven games that he has started and finished. The Pats upgraded Maye's supporting cast in the offseason by adding four new starters on the O-Line and improving the WR room. That will help on Sunday against a Dolphins squad that might have the worst group of corners in the league. Miami struggled to generate pressure in Week 1 despite blitzing at the highest rate in the league. That created huge gaps in their coverage which Daniel Jones took advantage of by throwing for 272 yards despite a postive game script.

Let’s target the Dolphins in Week 2. Miami is dealing with major issues in the secondary—four defensive backs are already ruled out, and three more, including starter Storm Duck, were listed as DNPs on Wednesday’s initial injury report. Kayshon Boutte had a breakout Week 1, racking up 103 yards on six catches with a team-high eight targets. Demario Douglas found the end zone, but Boutte looks like the better bet this week at +330. That said, Douglas is also in play at +425 after seeing three red-zone targets last week against the Raiders. Boutte at this number is strong value for a WR1 in a plus matchup, and Douglas is tough to ignore with that usage. I’m putting 0.6 units on each Patriots receiver to score.

Let’s target the Dolphins in Week 2. Miami is dealing with major issues in the secondary—four defensive backs are already ruled out, and three more, including starter Storm Duck, were listed as DNPs on Wednesday’s initial injury report. Kayshon Boutte had a breakout Week 1, racking up 103 yards on six catches with a team-high eight targets. Demario Douglas found the end zone, but Boutte looks like the better bet this week at +330. That said, Douglas is also in play at +425 after seeing three red-zone targets last week against the Raiders. Boutte at this number is strong value for a WR1 in a plus matchup, and Douglas is tough to ignore with that usage. I’m putting 0.6 units on each Patriots receiver to score.

Given both teams’ inefficient offense and their inability to finish drives, looking toward the Under makes plenty of sense.

The projections expect the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Dolphins have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 58.7 plays per game.. The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The model projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 35.8 passes in this game, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Tua Tagovailoa comes in as one of the top QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 255.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

The predictive model expects the Patriots offense to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. At the moment, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (62.7% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.. The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower rush volume.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Miami's CB corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

The Patriots offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The predictive model expects the Patriots offense to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. At the moment, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (62.7% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.. The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower rush volume.. Stefon Diggs has run a route on 81.6% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to WRs.

The predictive model expects the Patriots offense to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. At the moment, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (62.7% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.. The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to run the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. With an exceptional 48.0% Route% (83rd percentile) since the start of last season, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in football.. The Dolphins pass defense has struggled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the league.

The predictive model expects the Patriots offense to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. At the moment, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (62.7% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.. The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower rush volume.. The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to earn 5.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Miami's DT corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to run the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Rhamondre Stevenson has generated 51.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among running backs (78th percentile).. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Miami's DT corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

The Dolphins have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 58.7 plays per game.. The model projects De'Von Achane to total 14.7 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.. The model projects De'Von Achane to be a more important option in his offense's run game in this week's game (61.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (47.0% in games he has played).. With an excellent record of 49.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (76th percentile), De'Von Achane places as one of the best pure rushers in football since the start of last season.. Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (131 per game) versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season.

The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to run the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Miami's DT corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.