New York @ Dallas Picks & Props

Dak Prescott is currently trading at -114 on FanDuel to go Over the total of 243.5 passing yards on Sunday against the New York Giants—a number that should be closer to -135. This is a strong spot for Prescott, who’s had extra time to prepare for the Giants' defense after facing the Eagles on Thursday in Week 1. New York lacks the defensive backs to effectively contain both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens on the outside.

I’m expecting an uptick from Russell Wilson and the Giants’ passing game, especially against this zone-heavy scheme from Dallas. Malik Nabers drew 12 targets in Week 1 but could only reel in five catches. He finished seventh among WRs in target rate in the opening week and was 10^th among all WRs versus zone defense in 2024. Projections range from 5.9 to 7.0 receptions and we can get Over +6.5 at EVEN money.

Russell Wilson's stock plummeted after Week 1, but I'm buying up the Giants QB in Week 2. Dallas is banged up in the secondary, doesn't have the same pass rush, and runs a ton of zone coverage - something Wilson historically thrives against. With more time in the pocket, those deeper plays can develop for the G-Me,n and projections sit from 217.5 to as high as 240 yards for Russ, with the majority of models on the safe side of 220 yards. Game script says New York trails, which means more throws on the fast indoor track of AT&T Stadium. 

I don’t love this game, but with OC Brian Schottenheimer saying Jaydon Blue needs to “show more consistency” before becoming active, Javonte Williams’ role as the all-purpose back looks secure. At +120, you're getting a solid number—even against a strong Giants defensive front. Williams converted two of three red-zone carries last week in a run-heavy offense under new leadership. Miles Sanders, who got the other two RZ looks, also lost a key fumble that could cost him valuable touches in close. This is strong value for a back who could see 20 touches behind a healthy offensive line with three first-rounders and extra rest. I’d play this to even money. The Giants also finished 30th in success rate vs. the rush and rush EPA last week. 

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see just 125.3 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Giants, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 28.3 per game) since the start of last season.. As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Dallas Cowboys grades out as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season.. CeeDee Lamb's 55.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects an impressive reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 68.6% mark.

The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 60.4 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In totaling a monstrous 36.2 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Dak Prescott places among the top quarterbacks in football (90th percentile) by this measure.. With a terrific tally of 240.0 adjusted passing yards per game (76th percentile), Dak Prescott places as one of the top QBs in the NFL since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Giants defense has allowed a staggering 74.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Giants being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects the New York Giants as the 9th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Giants since the start of last season (a whopping 58.7 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the league vs. the Cowboys defense since the start of last season (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Giants are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.2 total plays in this contest: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects Russell Wilson to attempt 33.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 11th-fewest among all QBs.. Opposing QBs have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the New York Giants grades out as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season.. In racking up just 0.40 interceptions per game since the start of last season, Russell Wilson slots in among the best quarterbacks in the NFL (79th percentile).

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see just 125.3 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Giants, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 28.3 per game) since the start of last season.. As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Dallas Cowboys grades out as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing QBs have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the New York Giants grades out as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the formidable Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded a measly 79.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 5th-best rate in football.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's safety corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, ranking as the 8th-best in football.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Giants being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects the New York Giants as the 9th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Giants since the start of last season (a whopping 58.7 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. Since the start of last season, the anemic Cowboys pass defense has conceded a massive 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 9th-biggest rate in football.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Giants being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects the New York Giants as the 9th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Giants since the start of last season (a whopping 58.7 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Dallas Cowboys pass defense has given up a monstrous 69.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 4th-worst rate in the league.

The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Giants since the start of last season (a whopping 58.7 per game on average).. While Russell Wilson has earned 11.4% of his team's rushing play calls in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a more important option in New York's running game in this week's contest at 18.6%.. Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in the league (140 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season.

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal game plan.. The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 60.4 per game on average).. Since the start of last season, the weak New York Giants run defense has conceded a whopping 143.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 2nd-most in the league.