Buffalo @ New York Picks & Props

Buffalo may have to get creative to get the ball in Coleman’s hands, but Allen should be slinging it against a Jets defense that allowed four passing touchdowns but just 53 rushing yards on 20 carries to the Steelers in Week 1.

Wilson is the unquestioned top dog in New York’s passing attack, lining up alongside arguably the worst receiving corps in the league aside from him. Wilson should easily clear this reception line as Fields looks to him early and often.

Fields isn’t in the same class as Lamar Jackson, but he’s far above average as a rusher at his position. Buffalo’s defense is dealing with multiple injuries, including the absence of starting defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Look for Fields to rack up yards with his legs in this one.

Wilson snagged seven of nine targets for 95 yards in Week 1. He led all receivers in yards per route run (3.80) and passer rating when targeted (155.7), while his separation percentage of 75%  was the second-highest among players with at least six targets. Wilson has hit the 1,000-yard plateau in each of his first three seasons and looks poised to reach another level this year. Buffalo's pass defense fell apart down the stretch last season, ranking last in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate after Week 9. The Bills were last in the league in defensive dropback EPA last week and they are banged-up at CB with multiple projected starters on the IR.

I expect regression from the Jets offense, especially with Buffalo just coming off a run-in with another dual threat QB but one far better than Fields. Buffalo DC Bobby Babich laid into his stop unit after Sunday’s showing, lighting a fire under that defense. The Jets have a run-heavy scheme and will take the air out of the football. The Bills also have a quick turnaround for TNF next week, so they could park the bus with a big lead in the second half. This total was 44.5 on the look-ahead lines. Going Under 46.5 points.

These two offenses combined for 73 points and nine touchdowns in Week 1—plenty of scoring, and plenty of value in the TD market for Week 2. Three names I’m targeting: Josh Allen (-105), Justin Fields (+145), and Braelon Allen (+245). The Jets leaned run-heavy in the red zone last week—Fields didn’t attempt a single RZ pass but ran it four times, punching in two scores. Braelon Allen saw 50% of the RB red zone carries and found the end zone from eight yards out. Meanwhile, Josh Allen tied Christian McCaffrey for the most RZ rushes in Week 1 (8 attempts). I'd happily play Josh Allen down to -125, but there’s real value on both Jets players too. Allen’s my favorite, but I’ll be betting all three this week.

With regression in mind, I’m forecast a better showing from the Jets’ defense and a return to earth for the New York offense. Justin Fields looked like Lamar Jackson out there. Luckily for the Bills, they just game-planned for the best dual-threat QB in the league and can apply those lessons. Buffalo can’t be happy with its defensive efforts on Sunday night and there will be a lot of attention on Bobby Babich’s stop unit this week. The Jets are a run-heavy scheme under new OC Tanner Engstrand and ran 39 times in Week 1. New York will try to take air out of the football and control possession. Buffalo is a TD favorite and will be playing with the lead, should game script hold up. That means more drawn-out series and an emphasis on the run in the second half. The Bills also have a short week ahead with a Thursday game in Week 3. That could have them playing it safe with starters if they get up big.

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the New York Jets grades out as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Buffalo's collection of safeties has been very bad since the start of last season, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. With a fantastic rate of 247.0 adjusted passing yards per game (79th percentile), Josh Allen has been as one of the leading passers in the NFL since the start of last season.. Josh Allen's 74.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a meaningful progression in his passing precision over last season's 64.7% rate.. With an outstanding 8.74 adjusted yards-per-target (88th percentile) this year, Josh Allen ranks as one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL.. The Jets safeties project as the 9th-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the New York Jets grades out as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in football versus the Bills defense since the start of last season (73.2% Adjusted Completion%).. The Bills defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.11 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the 10th-most in the league.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Buffalo's collection of safeties has been very bad since the start of last season, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

This week, James Cook is projected by the model to find himself in the 75th percentile when it comes to running backs with 2.8 targets.. James Cook has compiled a colossal 1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among running backs. (That may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. James Cook's 14.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in football: 76th percentile for RBs.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. With an excellent 18.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (79th percentile) since the start of last season, James Cook ranks as one of the top pass-game RBs in the NFL.

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the New York Jets grades out as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Buffalo's collection of safeties has been very bad since the start of last season, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

With an impressive 22.2% Target% (78th percentile) since the start of last season, Khalil Shakir has been among the wideouts with the most usage in the league.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. Khalil Shakir ranks as one of the best WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 58.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.. With an outstanding 80.3% Adjusted Completion% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Khalil Shakir rates as one of the most reliable receivers in football when it comes to wide receivers.. Since the start of last season, the deficient Jets defense has allowed the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a monstrous 8.61 yards.

This week, Dalton Kincaid is anticipated by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.2 targets.. With an exceptional 18.8% Target% (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Dalton Kincaid places as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in football.. Dalton Kincaid has notched a staggering 44.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. Dalton Kincaid comes in as one of the leading pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 37.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. In this week's contest, Garrett Wilson is projected by our trusted projection set to land in the 98th percentile among wide receivers with 10.1 targets.. The projections expect Garrett Wilson to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing offense in this game (34.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (27.9% in games he has played).. When it comes to air yards, Garrett Wilson grades out in the towering 91st percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accumulating a staggering 88.0 per game.. The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.7%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (70.7%).

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. Our trusted projections expect Breece Hall to notch 3.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs.. Breece Hall has accumulated a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That might not seem too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).. Breece Hall has been in the 97th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 21.6 figure since the start of last season.. The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (39.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are predicted by the predictive model to run only 61.9 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.. The Bills have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.7 plays per game.. Josh Allen's rushing efficiency has diminished this year, totaling just 3.64 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.65 figure last year.. Since the start of last season, the porous Jets run defense has yielded a monstrous 4.33 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 24th-worst rate in football.. The Jets defensive tackles profile as the 5th-best group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.