Washington @ Green Bay Picks & Props

Tucker Kraft led the Packers with 15 red-zone targets last year, snagging 11 of them for 103 yards and six touchdowns. The young tight end finished the 2024 season with 50 receptions for 707 yards and seven touchdowns. He picked up right where he left off in Week 1, hauling in a 15-yard touchdown on the opening drive. The Commanders allowed eight touchdowns to opposing tight ends last year — the fifth-highest number in the league.

Ertz had three catches for 26 yards and a touchdown last week. He logged 66 receptions for 654 yards and seven scores last year while adding another TD in the playoffs. The veteran TE has been Mr. Reliable in the red zone where he hauled in 10 receptions on a team-high 18 targets in 2024. Green Bay struggled to defend tight ends last year, ranking 25th in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to the position (970). The Packers played zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the league and Ertz thrives against zone coverage with his ability to find soft spots.

Daniels’ offensive line wasn’t great against the Giants and that played into him running 11 times. Now you face a jacked-up rush from the Packers, with Micah Parsons in play. Projections calling for gains on the ground for Daniels, which leads me to the TD anytime markets. He finished second among all QBs for red zone rushing attempts in 2024. I see him either getting his number called or making a play with his legs when no one is open in the end zone. Touchdown anytime for JD at +185.

Daniels completed 19-of-30 passes for 233 yards last week. That said, he had racked up more than 21.5 completions in the previous nine games that he had started and finished. It's worth noting that his receivers had three drops last week and should be more sure-handed with the Week 1 jitters in the rear-view mirror. The Commanders also had a positive game script last week but should have more neutral and negative game scripts on TNF since they're installed as 3.5-point road dogs.

With blocking schemes focused on stopping new Packer Micah Parsons, things should open for Rashan Gary. The 2024 Pro Bowler led Green Bay with five pressures (one sack, one QB hit, and three hurries) last week. He has picked up at least half a sack in seven of his last 11 games. Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels' tendency to hold on to the ball and try to extend plays behind a below-average line has resulted in plenty of sacks. The Washington pivot was sacked 47 times last year and three times in Week 1.

Jacobs was limited to 66 rushing yards on 19 rush attempts in Week 1. He has now rushed for fewer than 70 yards in six of his last eight games and on TNF he faces a Commanders defense that was dominant last week, holding the Giants to just just six points on 3.7 yards per play. Washington held Giants running backs to just 30 rushing yards on 15 carries and had the highest graded run defense in the league (88.3) per PFF in Week 1. 

Deebo Samuel reminded everyone in Week 1 that he’s still one of the NFL’s top playmakers. His standout stat was 10 targets, which was five more than any teammate. With Kliff Kingsbury clearly intent on maximizing his versatility, Samuel will remain a focal point against a Packers defense that just allowed Jared Goff to complete 31 of 39 passes.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Commanders to pass on 56.9% of their chances: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Packers cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. The Packers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.. Jordan Love is positioned as one of the best per-play passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 8.26 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 94th percentile.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Commanders defense has allowed the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing teams: a whopping 0.00 YAC.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. Josh Jacobs has run a route on 47.6% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 81st percentile among running backs.. The predictive model expects Josh Jacobs to notch 3.1 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs.. The Packers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.. With an exceptional 18.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Jacobs ranks among the top running backs in the pass game in football.

With an elite 85.5% Route Participation Rate (76th percentile) since the start of last season, Romeo Doubs has been as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in the NFL.. When it comes to air yards, Romeo Doubs grades out in the lofty 80th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 67.0 per game.. The Packers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.. With an outstanding 52.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Romeo Doubs ranks among the top wide receivers in the league in the league.. With an excellent 9.8 adjusted yards per target (89th percentile) since the start of last season, Romeo Doubs rates as one of the leading pass-catching WRs in the league.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. Tucker Kraft has run a route on 83.8% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs.. The leading projections forecast Tucker Kraft to accumulate 5.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among TEs.. Tucker Kraft has garnered a whopping 8.7% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.. The Packers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. The Packers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.. The Commanders pass defense has struggled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in football.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Commanders to pass on 56.9% of their chances: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. In regards to air yards, Austin Ekeler ranks in just the 5th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, with just -5.0 per game.. With a subpar 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (3rd percentile) since the start of last season, Austin Ekeler ranks among the top RBs in the pass game in the NFL in space.. As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Green Bay's collection of LBs has been fantastic since the start of last season, projecting as the 9th-best in football.

The leading projections forecast the Commanders as the 10th-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 43.1% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game.. The Packers safeties profile as the 26th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

The model projects the Packers to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The Packers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.0 plays per game.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Washington's collection of LBs has been terrific since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the league.

The model projects the Packers to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The Packers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.0 plays per game.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Washington's collection of LBs has been terrific since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the league.