Houston @ Los Angeles Picks & Props

For the Rams, things look positive: Davante Adams is in town, Kyren Williams is healthy and signed to a new deal, and Matthew Stafford is fit, but just how healthy is he really? That’s going to be put to the test as they face a Texans defense that could quite comfortably be the best in the NFL. 

I’m not looking to fade this Houston secondary, and with Joe Mixon out and Nick Chubb stepping in, there could be some value in Dameon Pierce picking up the tough yards in what could be a low-scoring game — even in a dome. Pierce enters as the No. 2 back, but don’t be surprised if the workload is closer to a 50/50 split. Chubb is coming off a rough stretch — just 3.3 yards per carry over eight games last year, plus major injuries to his ACL, MCL, meniscus, and a broken foot over the last few seasons. Pierce is currently priced at +330 to score, while Chubb sits at +195. That gap doesn’t reflect what could be an even backfield. In a potentially low-scoring matchup, I’ll gladly take a shot on the longer number.

So on one team we have a quarterback who’ll be under near-constant pressure and on the other we’ll have a new-look Texans’ offensive line, that will need to instantly be a huge improvement on last season’s unit. Factor in the lack of Joe Mixon and the run game’s reliance on what is left of Nick Chubb, and this should be a low-scoring game.

There are serious question marks over the health of Matthew Stafford, who missed most of training camp, and left tackle Alaric Jackson who is questionable. That alone is reason to pause when thinking of backing the Rams in this season opener.

The leading projections forecast Tyler Higbee to be a less important option in his offense's air attack this week (9.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (16.7% in games he has played).. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL last year.. The Texans pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67%) to TEs last year (67.0%).. As it relates to defensive ends rushing the passer, Houston's group of DEs has been exceptional last year, ranking as the 5th-best in the league.

The projections expect the Rams to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Rams are projected by our trusted projection set to call 66.8 total plays in this game: the highest number among all teams this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically correlate with increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced rush volume.. The projections expect Matthew Stafford to throw 37.7 passes this week, on balance: the 3rd-most among all QBs.

The projections expect the Rams to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Rams are projected by our trusted projection set to call 66.8 total plays in this game: the highest number among all teams this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically correlate with increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced rush volume.. The projections expect Matthew Stafford to throw 37.7 passes this week, on balance: the 3rd-most among all QBs.

With a 63.3% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) last year, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL has been the Texans.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.. The projections expect C.J. Stroud to throw 35.3 passes in this game, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.. Last year, the porous Los Angeles Rams defense has given up the 7th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing teams: a whopping 5.45 YAC.

The projections expect the Rams to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Rams are projected by our trusted projection set to call 66.8 total plays in this game: the highest number among all teams this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically correlate with increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced rush volume.. In this week's contest, Puka Nacua is predicted by the predictive model to place in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.8 targets.. With a terrific 93.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (99th percentile) last year, Puka Nacua ranks among the top pass-catching wide receivers in the league.

With a 63.3% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) last year, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL has been the Texans.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.. Dalton Schultz has run a route on 77.5% of his team's passing plays last year, ranking him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.. The model projects Dalton Schultz to notch 4.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

With a 63.3% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) last year, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL has been the Texans.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.. The leading projections forecast Nico Collins to accrue 9.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. Nico Collins is positioned as one of the top WRs in the league last year, averaging a stellar 75.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

With a 63.3% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) last year, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL has been the Texans.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.. Nick Chubb has compiled a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game last year: 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. Last year, the weak Rams pass defense has conceded a whopping 89.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 4th-largest rate in the league.

The Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. In this week's contest, Nick Chubb is anticipated by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 86th percentile among running backs with 14.3 rush attempts.. Out of all RBs, Nick Chubb ranks in the 88th percentile for carries last year, comprising 59.0% of the workload in his offense's run game.. The Rams defense owns the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing running games last year, conceding 4.74 adjusted yards-per-carry.

The Texans have been the 6th-least run-centric team in football (context-neutralized) last year with a 36.7% run rate.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.. Our trusted projections expect C.J. Stroud to notch 2.4 carries in this week's game, on balance: the 11th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends grade out as the best collection of DEs in the NFL last year when it comes to stopping the run.