Detroit @ Green Bay Picks & Props

The Green Bay Packers aren’t inclined to repeatedly throw the ball, which rules out taking Love’s passing touchdown prop. They also generally avoid airing it out in Matt LaFleur's system, with Love surpassing this total just five times last year. Although Love's passing numbers may end up being efficient, there’s no betting prop for completion percentage, so I’m taking the Under on 30.5 passing attempts.

Gibbs had 30 or more receiving yards in each of the final six games last season. That includes having 30 receiving yards in the second game against the Packers. I love his chances of being a big target out of the backfield again to start this season as an underdog.    

In their three losses last season, Goff had 55, 59, and 40 pass attempts, respectively. He also had 41 pass attempts in the second game against the Packers last season. Despite the Packers being a good defense, they ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts allowed.

In the three losses that the Lions had last season with Montgomery active, he had 11, 5, and 7 carries, respectively, in those games. I like the Green Bay Packers to win and think Montgomery will see less usage.

Gibbs rushed for 1,412 yards last year while adding another 517 yards on 52 receptions. The Pro Bowl RB has hauled in at least four receptions with 30+ receiving yards in each of his last six games. He could be even more involved in the passing game this year under new OC John Morton who has been splitting him out wide in training camp. The Packers are 30th in the league in receptions (91) and receiving yards (686) allowed to opposing RBs last season. They traded for Micah Parsons last week but an improved pass rush means that Detroit will rely even more on quick passes to outlet receiving options like Gibbs.

I’m high on Matthew Golden this year, and getting him at better than +200 for a TD in an indoor matchup against the Lions feels like a gift. He’ll likely see coverage from Terrion Arnold, who graded out as the 105th of 116 cornerbacks in coverage last season. Golden’s elite speed and expected WR1 role in Green Bay’s passing attack make this a prime spot, especially with Jayden Reed missing practice Wednesday, Dontayvion Wicks limited, and Romeo Doubs not a true alpha. Jordan Love isn’t shy about pushing the ball downfield, and the dome only boosts the outlook. Golden should be priced closer to +150 to +170 — certainly not longer than Tucker Kraft. This is a strong value for a high-upside play.

Green Bay finished last season fourth in the league in defensive EPA. That was largely due to ranking fourth in the NFL in takeaways but opponent TOs is a volatile category from year to year. The Packers were 21st in defensive success rate and 28th in defensive dropback success rate which is far more indicative of sustainable production. I don't trust their young CBs especially with offseason addition Nate Hobbs unlikely to play in Week 1. That's bad news against an explosive Lions offense that features Jared Goff and a bevy of talented receivers. Detroit is also vulnerable on defense and Jordan Love has shown that he can move the ball even without a big-name wideout at his disposal.

Detroit is expected to regress after the departures of both their offensive and defensive coordinators. That said, oddsmakers are undervaluing a squad that went 15-2 last year and returns most of the personnel on both sides of the ball. The retirement of center Frank Ragnow hurts but the D will be better with a healthy Aidan Hutchinson back. The Packers have a quality QB in Jordan Love but don't have the receiving weapons that the Lions possess. The Packers D should regress after coming up with splash plays last year but struggling to defend on a down-to-down basis. They traded for Micah Parsons but temper your expectations for Week 1 since he's dealing with a joint sprain in his back and likely won't be 100%.

Books instantly upped Green Bay from -1.5 to -2.5 the second the Parsons trade hit. I’ll gladly take the extra padding with the Lions, who have negative public perception hanging over their heads after the departure of both coordinators. Detroit remains one of the best two-way teams, especially since half the defensive depth chart isn’t watching from the sidelines. Green Bay QB Jordan Love struggled against the Lions’ D last year, posting one of his lowest opponent passer ratings. He comes into 2025 behind schedule due to thumb surgery, which held him back in camp. The Lions are 11-4 ATS as underdogs the past three regular seasons.

The leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Jordan Love to throw 35.0 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 10th-most among all QBs.. The Detroit Lions defense has been a bit of pass funnel last year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (35.8 per game) last year.

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the model to run just 62.1 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Packers last year (just 55.7 per game on average).. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in football versus the Detroit Lions defense last year (66.9% Adjusted Completion%).. The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the best safety corps in football last year in covering receivers.

The leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Detroit Lions defense has been a bit of pass funnel last year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (35.8 per game) last year.. Josh Jacobs has run a route on 46.4% of his team's passing plays last year, putting him in the 77th percentile among running backs.. The projections expect Josh Jacobs to notch 3.0 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a stellar 19.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (80th percentile) last year, Josh Jacobs has been among the leading pass-catching running backs in the league.

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the model to run just 62.1 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Packers last year (just 55.7 per game on average).. Last year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has yielded a measly 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 2nd-best rate in the league.. The Lions pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.14 yards-after-the-catch last year: the 3rd-fewest in football.. The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the best safety corps in football last year in covering receivers.

The Detroit Lions have run the 6th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a colossal 59.6 plays per game.. Sam LaPorta has run a route on 81.7% of his offense's passing plays last year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.. The leading projections forecast Sam LaPorta to earn 5.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Sam LaPorta profiles as one of the leading pass-game TEs last year, averaging a remarkable 45.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.. Last year, the feeble Packers defense has surrendered a monstrous 60.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the most in the league.

The Detroit Lions have run the 6th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a colossal 59.6 plays per game.. Detroit's passing stats last year may be artificially increased (and rushing stats deflated) in light of playing the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this week's game.

The projections expect the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 41.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Green Bay Packers defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games last year, conceding just 4.07 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Green Bay's DE corps has been one of the most skilled last year, profiling as the 8th-best in football.

The model projects the Packers as the 9th-least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 40.9% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the model to run just 62.1 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Packers last year (just 55.7 per game on average).. The leading projections forecast Jordan Love to garner 1.8 carries in this week's game, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.. Jordan Love is not a mobile QB and has accounted for a measly 3.9% of his team's carries last year, putting him in the 16th percentile among QBs.

The model projects the Packers as the 9th-least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 40.9% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the model to run just 62.1 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Packers last year (just 55.7 per game on average).. When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Detroit's unit has been very good last year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

The model projects the Packers as the 8th-least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 40.9% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the model to run just 62.1 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Packers last year (just 55.7 per game on average).. Last year, the formidable Detroit Lions run defense has surrendered a feeble 96.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.. When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Detroit's unit has been very good last year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.