New York @ Washington Picks & Props

Theo Johnson became a reliable option in the New York passing attack with 26 receptions – on 35 targets – for 294 yards and a touchdown across eight games before a Lisfranc injury in his foot end his season in Week 13. I also particularly value the game-to-game consistency. Johnson hauled in at least three receptions and 30 receiving yards in seven of those eight games.

Let’s pump the brakes on Cam Skattebo in Week 1. The rookie didn’t debut until Week 3 of the preseason after missing significant time and opens behind Devin Singletary on the depth chart — though that may be more about veteran preference than talent. Still, one key preseason moment stands out: Tyrone Tracy failed to punch it in from the 1-yard line, and it was Singletary who subbed in and converted. That’s meaningful. Singletary could have his biggest role early, and with checkdown specialist Russell Wilson under center, he offers sneaky value at +750 for an anytime TD. Even 5–7 touches and any red-zone usage would make that price live. It’s a lean, but Week 1 might be the perfect spot — especially against a Washington defense that gave up 25 points per game last year. I'll take it for a half-unit to +625/+650.

The G-Men need that pass rush to hurry Daniels and make him throw into shorter options while not allowing deep plays to develop. The second-year QB does see a notable slip in production when pressured and also struggled more versus man coverage in 2024. Shane Bowen’s defense played man at the 11th highest rate last season. With Mike Kafka back to calling plays for N.Y. we could see more ground-and-pound from the Giants as they go after the Commanders weak run stop unit (27th in EPA allowed per handoff in 2024). That would also slow down pace and keep the ball away from Washington’s up-tempo attack.

Week 1 odds are a different animal since they take action for four months. Rarely do you see a move away from the favorite without an injury or trade, but that's what we get in this NFC East opener. The Giants opened +7.5 and are down as low as +5.5 at some shops. New York has improved at two key spots: Quarterback and pass rush. Wilson and Winston give the G-Men the deep threat they were lacking and the pass rush will get after Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, forcing him to make tough throws. I'd would have loved to get New York on the other side of a touchdown but I'll grab +6.5 at FanDuel and would take +7 should the spread go back up come gameday.

Opposing QBs have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense last year: 3rd-fewest in football.. The New York Giants offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game statistics across the board.. Last year, the imposing Washington Commanders defense has yielded a measly 191.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-best in the NFL.. Last year, the fierce Commanders defense has allowed a paltry 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-best rate in the league.

This game's line suggests a throwing game script for the Giants, who are -6-point underdogs.. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 59.2% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 130.6 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the model to call 66.1 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. In this week's game, Austin Ekeler is anticipated by the model to finish in the 93rd percentile among RBs with 3.8 targets.. With an elite 12.4% Target Share (94th percentile) last year, Austin Ekeler rates among the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads in football.. With a remarkable 30.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (98th percentile) last year, Austin Ekeler stands as one of the top pass-game RBs in football.

This game's line suggests a throwing game script for the Giants, who are -6-point underdogs.. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 59.2% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 130.6 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. Last year, the porous Commanders defense has conceded the 3rd-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing running backs: a staggering 8.65 YAC.

With a 6-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.. The projections expect the Commanders as the 6th-most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 45.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the model to call 66.1 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. Last year, the feeble Giants run defense has surrendered a whopping 139.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 4th-worst in the league.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 130.6 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. Last year, the weak Washington Commanders run defense has surrendered a whopping 133.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 9th-most in the league.. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Washington's group of DEs has been atrocious last year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

This game's line suggests a throwing game script for the Giants, who are -6-point underdogs.. The projections expect the New York Giants as the 7th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

This game's line suggests a throwing game script for the Giants, who are -6-point underdogs.. The projections expect the New York Giants as the 7th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.