Carolina @ Jacksonville Picks & Props

Panthers running back Chubba Hubbard enjoyed a breakout season last year with 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns in just 15 games. He showed signs of that in the previous season with 902 yards and nine scores, and I'm expecting the upward climb to continue as the Panthers have all five of their offensive linemen back for this season.

Jacksonville is going all in on making Trevor Lawrence live up to the hype. This offense is retooled under Liam Coen and the Jags have more weapons on offense. They get to test that new attack against the worst defense from 2024. Carolina should be a little improvement from a historically bad defense but is still crap. This game does have the potential to be a shootout but I'm going to bank more on Jacksonville to put up points and top their team total.

Tetairoa McMillan enters Week 1 as the clear No. 1 receiver in Carolina and draws a great matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranked 31st in EPA per pass allowed on deep throws last season. With Jalen Coker out and Adam Thielen moved out of the way, the No. 8 overall pick steps into a featured role — and possibly the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation, with few QBs in contention. At 6'4", McMillan posted over 2,700 receiving yards in his final two college seasons and brings the rare blend of red-zone size and deep-threat speed. He’s a true unicorn at the position, and at +170 for a touchdown in a game with shootout potential, he’s my favorite TD bet on the board. I’d play this down to +150 or +155.

Bigsby is listed as a co-starter with Travis Etienne after a strong finish to 2024 and he’s going to get those red zone carries. He finished with seven touchdowns last year and has a beefed-up offensive line in front of him for 2025. The Jaguars are home chalk to Carolina, which allowed a ton of rushing scores. Bank on Tank to score a TD.

The Panthers had the worst run defense in the NFL a season ago, and the Jaguars had the worst pass defense. In addition, Jacksonville's nine turnovers forced were the fewest of any team since the NFL expanded to 17 games. With two improved offensive units, and a kicker in Cam Little who has inside-the-stadium range, I'm expecting a game that will end up in the 50-point range. 

The Jaguars should win this game, but I expect it will be close. Bryce Young sees the bulk of his starting line return, and should build on a promising end to last season. Trevor Lawrence looks comfortable in Liam Coen's new offense, but offensive line concerns persist. Neither defense is very good, and this should come down to the final drive so I'll take the Panthers getting the three plus the hook. 

The leading projections forecast the Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. With a terrible rate of 179.0 adjusted passing yards per game (22nd percentile), Bryce Young rates as one of the weakest passers in football last year.. Bryce Young checks in as one of the least accurate QBs in the league last year with a 61.9% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 15th percentile.. With a feeble 6.51 adjusted yards-per-target (21st percentile) last year, Bryce Young has been as one of the least efficient QBs in football.

The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive blueprint to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with head coach Liam Coen now calling the plays.. Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.1% pass rate.. The Jacksonville O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.. Last year, the anemic Carolina Panthers defense has been torched for a colossal 73.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-largest rate in the NFL.. The Panthers pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency last year, giving up 8.40 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive blueprint to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with head coach Liam Coen now calling the plays.. Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.1% pass rate.. The leading projections forecast Brenton Strange to earn 4.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among TEs.. When it comes to air yards, Brenton Strange grades out in the towering 78th percentile among tight ends last year, accumulating a whopping 23.0 per game.. The Jacksonville O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The leading projections forecast the Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

A passing game script is indicated by the Panthers being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.. The leading projections forecast the Panthers to be the 8th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.04 seconds per snap.. Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense last year: 7th-most in the league.. Last year, the porous Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up a colossal 78.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.. Last year, the poor Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 7th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a whopping 5.33 YAC.

A passing game script is indicated by the Panthers being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.. The leading projections forecast the Panthers to be the 8th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.04 seconds per snap.. Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense last year: 7th-most in the league.. Chuba Hubbard has run a route on 60.6% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs.. In this contest, Chuba Hubbard is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 77th percentile among running backs with 2.6 targets.

The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive blueprint to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with head coach Liam Coen now calling the plays.. Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.1% pass rate.. Travis Etienne has compiled a colossal 1.0 air yards per game last year: 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. Travis Etienne rates in the 84th percentile for RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a superb 16.4 mark last year.. The Jacksonville O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The leading projections forecast the Panthers to be the 8th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.04 seconds per snap.. Opposing squads have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (135 per game) against the Jaguars defense last year.