Tampa Bay @ Atlanta Picks & Props

I suspect we should see plenty of passing from Tampa Bay in a soft matchup, and on the flip side, there’s no slowing down this Falcons offense, which averaged a hefty 7.7 yards per pass a year ago and should only grow stronger with Michael Penix, Jr. coming off his first training camp with the starters. Both secondaries are weak, both quarterbacks are explosive, and with that, there’s no shying away from the Over.

My favorite play in this game is Michael Penix Jr. anytime TD at +750 — a full-unit bet for me. This is a young, athletic QB in an offense that can move the ball indoors. He’s priced more like Aaron Rodgers (+1200) than other second-year QBs like Drake Maye or Bo Nix (both around +350), and that’s a misprice. Penix didn’t run a ton at Washington — largely because he had three NFL-caliber WRs — but in three starts last year, he logged seven carries and a rushing TD. Against a tough Bucs defense, I expect some improvisation, and Penix has the tools to punch one in near the goal line. I’d cap this closer to +550, in Bryce Young territory. At +750, it’s a bet I’ll take every time.

The Mayfield-Evans connection was a potent one last year, as the pair linked up for 11 touchdowns in 14 games. The Falcons surrendered the most touchdowns to wide-outs a year ago (22), and it’s easy to see them ranking toward the bottom in that department again this year after an uninspiring offseason.

While Tampa Bay should have the better of the two secondaries, perhaps giving it the edge it needs here, the Falcons showed last season they can move the ball incredibly well on the ground and young Michael Penix Jr. has gotten the ball to his talented skill position players in space on short passes which could easily wreak havoc on this Buccaneers defense – especially on the road in Atlanta. This game should deliver us fireworks and emerge as Week 1’s most captivating game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers line looks like one of the best in football with Tristan Wirfs continuing to ascend into stardom, and Baker Mayfield is also coming off an excellent season by the passing grades – particularly on short throws. With Bucky Irving making huge gains in the backfield, too, this is a very balanced offense which shouldn’t be bothered much by a flat Atlanta Falcons defense.

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 9th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a monstrous 59.2 plays per game.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel last year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) last year.. Last year, the poor Buccaneers defense has been gouged for a colossal 244.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-most in the NFL.. Last year, the deficient Buccaneers defense has yielded a monstrous 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-highest rate in the league.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 10th-most plays in football last year, totaling a monstrous 58.9 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. In totaling a whopping 34.0 pass attempts per game last year, Baker Mayfield ranks among the top quarterbacks in the league (78th percentile) by this measure.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense last year: 9th-most in football.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 2nd-best in football last year.

At the moment, the least pass-focused offense in the league (56.9% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Falcons.. Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to call the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's unit has been one of the most skilled last year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 125.6 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's group of safeties has been excellent last year, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

At the moment, the least pass-focused offense in the league (56.9% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Falcons.. Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to call the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 9th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a monstrous 59.2 plays per game.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel last year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) last year.. The leading projections forecast Drake London to earn 9.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.. With a terrific 80.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (97th percentile) last year, Drake London rates as one of the best wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 10th-most plays in football last year, totaling a monstrous 58.9 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense last year: 9th-most in football.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 2nd-best in football last year.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 10th-most plays in football last year, totaling a monstrous 58.9 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense last year: 9th-most in football.. In this week's game, Mike Evans is expected by the projections to find himself in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.1 targets.. Mike Evans profiles as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL last year, averaging a stellar 73.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 125.6 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.6%) to tight ends last year (71.6%).. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's group of safeties has been excellent last year, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 10th-most plays in football last year, totaling a monstrous 58.9 plays per game.. The Falcons defense has had the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing running games last year, giving up 4.81 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Falcons linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst LB corps in football last year when it comes to defending the run.