MONEYLINE
DAL
-426 moneyline
DAL
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
8.31%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
DAL
-426 moneyline
Close Modal
DAL
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
8.31%
EV
There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.
-426
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.15 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
20.65%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.15 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
20.65%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Cowboys defense this year (75.6% Adjusted Completion%).
+850
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.88 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
18.77%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.88 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
18.77%
EV
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. Javonte Williams grades out in the 84th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.13 per game.. This year, the deficient Commanders defense has been torched for a whopping 73.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-largest rate in football.
-175
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.54 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
14.61%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.54 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
14.61%
EV
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 6th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. George Pickens has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.6% this year, which ranks him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. In regards to air yards, George Pickens grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among wide receivers this year, averaging a monstrous 101.0 per game.
+130
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.43 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.14%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.43 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.14%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. Terry McLaurin has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 27.6% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.
+200
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.41 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
2.21%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.41 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
2.21%
EV
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. With an exceptional 21.6% Red Zone Target% (91st percentile) this year, Jake Ferguson ranks among the tight ends with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL.. Jake Ferguson has put up a monstrous 32.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among TEs.
+155
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.12 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
1.68%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.12 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
1.68%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. While John Bates has been responsible for 2.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much more involved in Washington's passing offense near the end zone in this week's game at 8.3%.
+900
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.31 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.68%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.31 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.68%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. When it comes to air yards, Chris Rodriguez Jr. grades out in the lofty 79th percentile among running backs this year, accruing an astounding 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
+650
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.17 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-9.18%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
0.17 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-9.18%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Cowboys defense this year (75.6% Adjusted Completion%).
+500
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.4 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-10.13%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.4 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-10.13%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Cowboys defense this year (75.6% Adjusted Completion%).
+130
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.14 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-20.78%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.14 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-20.78%
EV
With a 59.8% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football in these cases has been the Cowboys.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 6th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. Dak Prescott's 68.0% Adjusted Completion% this season shows an impressive growth in his throwing accuracy over last season's 65.0% mark.. With an exceptional rate of 1.87 per game (92nd percentile), Dak Prescott has been among the top touchdown passers in the NFL this year.
+425
RECEPTIONS MADE
2.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
25.46%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
2.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
25.46%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. The projections expect John Bates to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack in this week's contest (9.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.5% in games he has played).
o0.5
-225
RECEPTIONS MADE
2.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
11.27%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
2.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
11.27%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. The Cowboys pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.6%) vs. tight ends this year (79.6%).
o1.5
-125
RECEPTIONS MADE
4.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
11.03%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
4.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
11.03%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. In this week's game, Terry McLaurin is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 90th percentile among wide receivers with 8.0 targets.
o3.5
-160
RECEPTIONS MADE
5.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
6.82%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
5.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
6.82%
EV
A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. George Pickens's 58.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 71.0.. The Cowboys offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all pass game stats across the board.
u5.5
-103
RECEPTIONS MADE
4.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-2.13%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
4.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-2.13%
EV
A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The Cowboys offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all pass game stats across the board.
u4.5
-115
RECEPTIONS MADE
2.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-2.85%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
2.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-2.85%
EV
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. Javonte Williams's 57.0% Route% this season indicates a significant improvement in his passing offense utilization over last season's 44.1% figure.. With an excellent 2.3 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Javonte Williams has been as one of the top running backs in the pass game in the league.
o1.5
-172
RECEPTIONS MADE
0.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-10.76%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
0.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-10.76%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. The Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.1%) versus RBs this year (86.1%).
o0.5
-150
RECEPTIONS MADE
0.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-14.79%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-14.79%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has gone out for more passes this year (19.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (6.6%).
o0.5
-130
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
1.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-2%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
1.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-2%
EV
The projections expect the Commanders to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 49.7% red zone pass rate.. The Washington Commanders have called the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
u1.5
-200
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
2.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-9.77%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
2.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-9.77%
EV
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. In logging a massive 37.7 pass attempts per game this year, Dak Prescott ranks among the top QBs in the league (100th percentile) by this metric.. This year, the deficient Commanders defense has been torched for a whopping 73.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-largest rate in football.
o1.5
-220
PASSING COMPLETIONS
21.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
22.26%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
21.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
22.26%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Cowboys defense this year (75.6% Adjusted Completion%).
o17.5
-106
PASSING COMPLETIONS
22.7 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
11.74%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
22.7 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
11.74%
EV
A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The Cowboys offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all pass game stats across the board.
u23.5
-102
PASSING ATTEMPTS
32.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
21.61%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
32.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
21.61%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.
o28.5
-105
PASSING ATTEMPTS
32.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.6
DIFFERENCE
9.36%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
32.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.6
DIFFERENCE
9.36%
EV
A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
u34.5
-108
PASSING YARDS
234.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+43.1
DIFFERENCE
26.52%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
234.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+43.1
DIFFERENCE
26.52%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. This year, the anemic Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded a monstrous 269.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the worst in the league.
o185.5
-112
PASSING YARDS
264.6 UNDER
PROJECTION
-9.9
DIFFERENCE
20.05%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
264.6 UNDER
PROJECTION
-9.9
DIFFERENCE
20.05%
EV
A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The Cowboys offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all pass game stats across the board.
u276.5
-115
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
16.5%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
16.5%
EV
A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 11th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The Cowboys offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all pass game stats across the board.
u0.5
-115
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
1.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
14.48%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
1.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
14.48%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. The Dallas Cowboys have intercepted 0.44 balls per game this year, grading out as the 6th-worst defense in the NFL by this stat
o0.5
-155
RECEIVING YARDS
5.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.8
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
5.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.8
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. The Cowboys defense has conceded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (47.0) versus RBs this year.
o0.5
+110
RECEIVING YARDS
4.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
26.69%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
4.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
26.69%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has gone out for more passes this year (19.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (6.6%).
o0.5
-105
RECEIVING YARDS
19.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.8
DIFFERENCE
26.52%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
19.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.8
DIFFERENCE
26.52%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. The projections expect John Bates to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack in this week's contest (9.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.5% in games he has played).
o6.5
-112
RECEIVING YARDS
22.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.6
DIFFERENCE
25.52%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
22.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.6
DIFFERENCE
25.52%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. The Cowboys pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.6%) vs. tight ends this year (79.6%).
o13.5
-120
RECEIVING YARDS
64.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.8
DIFFERENCE
25.21%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
64.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.8
DIFFERENCE
25.21%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.. In this week's game, Terry McLaurin is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 90th percentile among wide receivers with 8.0 targets.
o51.5
-110
RECEIVING YARDS
13.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
23.57%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
13.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
23.57%
EV
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. Javonte Williams's 57.0% Route% this season indicates a significant improvement in his passing offense utilization over last season's 44.1% figure.. The Washington Commanders defense has allowed the 10th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (35.0) vs. RBs this year.
o8.5
-110
RECEIVING YARDS
39.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.4
DIFFERENCE
19.87%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
39.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.4
DIFFERENCE
19.87%
EV
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. Jake Ferguson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (77.5% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (67.0%).. This year, the porous Commanders defense has allowed a whopping 70.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-most in the NFL.
o35.5
-118
RECEIVING YARDS
81.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.6
DIFFERENCE
-0.74%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
81.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.6
DIFFERENCE
-0.74%
EV
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. The leading projections forecast George Pickens to earn 8.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.. The Commanders pass defense has been gouged for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.6%) to wide receivers this year (68.6%).
o78.5
-112
RUSHING YARDS
60.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+31.7
DIFFERENCE
26.54%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
60.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+31.7
DIFFERENCE
26.54%
EV
The projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 42.7% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Dallas's LB corps has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the league. in the league.
o28.5
-110
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
14.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.6
DIFFERENCE
26.11%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
14.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.6
DIFFERENCE
26.11%
EV
The projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 42.7% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Dallas's LB corps has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the league. in the league.
o7.5
-110
RUSHING YARDS
13.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.5
DIFFERENCE
25.69%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
13.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.5
DIFFERENCE
25.69%
EV
A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 6th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. Dak Prescott has run for many more yards per game (11.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).. Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (141 per game) versus the Commanders defense this year.
o6.5
-118
RUSHING YARDS
57.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.3
DIFFERENCE
22.12%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
57.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.3
DIFFERENCE
22.12%
EV
The projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 42.7% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. In this game, Chris Rodriguez Jr. is projected by the projections to place in the 76th percentile among running backs with 13.8 rush attempts.. Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s rushing efficiency (4.74 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (78th percentile when it comes to RBs).. The Dallas Cowboys defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry.
o49.5
-135
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
4.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
11.78%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
4.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
11.78%
EV
The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The Washington Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
u4.5
-115
RUSHING YARDS
17.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
7.86%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
17.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
7.86%
EV
The projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 42.7% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. While Josh Johnson has accounted for 0.0% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Washington's run game in this contest at 14.6%.. The Dallas Cowboys defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Dallas's LB corps has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the league. in the league.
o15.5
-117
RUSHING YARDS
73.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-1.53%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
73.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-1.53%
EV
A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. Javonte Williams has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (79.0) this year than he did last year (31.0).. Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (141 per game) versus the Commanders defense this year.
o72.5
-110
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
3.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-2.38%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
3.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-2.38%
EV
A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 6th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
o2.5
-145
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
16.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-2.79%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
16.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-2.79%
EV
A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. In this contest, Javonte Williams is forecasted by the projections to position himself in the 97th percentile among running backs with 18.6 carries.. Javonte Williams has been a more integral piece of his team's run game this season (65.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (32.9%).
o15.5
-112