Minnesota @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

The Vikings may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) because they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Carson Wentz. At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (61.1% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Minnesota Vikings. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest level in the NFL vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season (72.1% Adjusted Completion%). The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the worst LB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.8 per game) since the start of last season. While Kenneth Gainwell has garnered 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Pittsburgh's offense near the end zone in this week's contest at 14.1%. Since the start of last season, the formidable Minnesota Vikings run defense has allowed a measly 0.70 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 6th-best rate in football.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.2% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.8 per game) since the start of last season. The projections expect Jaylen Warren to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's contest (69.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.7% in games he has played). Jaylen Warren has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 12.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.2% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.8 per game) since the start of last season. Pat Freiermuth has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 19.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs. In regards to air yards, Pat Freiermuth grades out in the towering 82nd percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 27.0 per game.

The Vikings may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) because they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Carson Wentz. At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (61.1% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Minnesota Vikings. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap. With an elite 27.3% Red Zone Target Rate (90th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson has been among the wideouts with the most usage near the goal line in the league. As it relates to air yards, Justin Jefferson ranks in the towering 97th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accruing a striking 99.0 per game.

The Vikings may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) because they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Carson Wentz. At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (61.1% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Minnesota Vikings. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap. In regards to air yards, T.J. Hockenson ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 49.0 per game. T.J. Hockenson ranks in the 92nd percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) with a staggering 41.2 mark since the start of last season.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.8 per game) since the start of last season. With a sizeable 19.4% Red Zone Target% (89th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonnu Smith stands among the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the NFL. As it relates to air yards, Jonnu Smith grades out in the lofty 83rd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a colossal 28.0 per game.

The Vikings may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) because they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Carson Wentz. At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (61.1% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Minnesota Vikings. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap. While Jordan Mason has garnered 83.3% of his team's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much less involved in Minnesota's rushing attack near the goal line in this game at 68.7%. While Jordan Mason has received 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Minnesota's passing offense near the end zone in this week's contest at 9.2%.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.8 per game) since the start of last season. DK Metcalf has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.5% since the start of last season, which places him in the 78th percentile among WRs. DK Metcalf has accumulated a staggering 90.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.