Kansas City @ Los Angeles Picks & Props

Worthy set an NFL-combine record with a 4.21 40-yard dash last year. He showed that his game-speed was just as impressive by scoring 12 TDs in the regular season and playoffs as a rookie. Chiefs OC Matt Nagy was creative in getting the ball in his hands which resulted in Worthy getting 20 rush attempts for 104 yards and three scores. No Chiefs wide receiver saw more targets in the red zone than Worthy who hauled in 11 of 18 throws. The next-closest WR on that list was the departed DeAndre Hopkins who had just 11 while Travis Kelce led the team with 26. The fact that Patrick Mahomes had so much faith in Worthy as a rookie, bodes well for increased looks this year — especially with Rashee Rice suspended.

The Chargers took Omarion Hampton with the 22nd pick in the draft and you know that Greg Roman is going to love pounding the rock with his shiny new toy. Hampton is a 220-pound back who combines breakaway speed with explosiveness, power and vision. He rushed for 3164 yards and 30 touchdowns in his last two years at UNC. The Bolts signed veteran Najee Harris in the offseason but he rarely impressed in Pittsburgh and has only been practicing with L.A. since last week due to an eye injury. That should lead to a work-horse role for Hampton in a run-heavy scheme in Week 1 

Another game in Brazil, and we could be in for another shootout after the Eagles-Packers combined for 66 points and over 800 yards of offense last season.  I’m backing Worthy. He could be used creatively — including in the run game — and actually had more rushing TDs last year than both Rico Dowdle and Travis Etienne last year. With Rashee Rice out, Worthy likely becomes the focal point of a pass-heavy offense that THE BLITZ projects to lead the league in pass rate in Week 1.

Kelce has a long history of torching the Bolts, with 51 or more receiving yards in seven of his past eight games against Los Angeles. He’s also hit the triple-digit mark four times.

While Hampton is behind Najee Harris on the depth chart, Greg Roman has preached about his RBs sharing the load and the rookie has been running this offense all summer. The same can’t be said for Harris, who missed all of camp. Hampton’s explosiveness and bulldozing style, which picks up yards after contact, gets a great matchup against KC's defense. The Chiefs’ run stop fell apart in the second half of 2024 and allowed 4.6 yards per carry in the closing eight games. Most Hampton forecasts for Friday’s game come in at 58 yards or higher with a ceiling spiking to 74 rushing yards.

While last year was a writeoff for Brown, he’s healthy heading into 2025 and has a go-to role in the passing attack. Brown also caught nine of 15 targets for 91 yards across his two regular-season games last year before being less involved in the postseason. His underlying numbers have always been solid, too, with Brown sporting a 12.5 aDOT and 11.9 yards per reception for his career. Plus, the Chargers allowed the sixth-highest yards per target to opposing wide receivers last year.

Pacheco caught 44 of 49 targets for a respectable 244 yards during his breakout 2023 campaign, and he also piled up 54 receiving yards while catching seven of eight targets before fracturing his fibula in Week 2 last year. I’m anticipating the fourth-year back receiving multiple targets Friday, and the Chargers also allowed the ninth-most receptions to opposing running backs last season.

Herbert has thrown for 236 or more yards in seven of nine games against Kansas, and he also aired it out for a career-high 7.7 yards per attempt last season.

Both offenses are behind schedule. The Chargers’ run-hefty playbook just got new RB Najee Harris back from a Fourth of July fireworks accident. The Chiefs’ passing game is missing Rashee Rice and potentially Jalen Royals along with Hollywood Brown working his way back into shape. The last three matchups between these rivals produced 36, 27, and 25 points and defenses often have a leg up in the opening weeks of the schedule. I’m literally keeping an ear to the ground about field conditions at Corinthians Arena, after the grass for last year’s Brazilian opener was horrific.

The Chiefs have been stewing since February, living with a lopsided loss in the Super Bowl. A win over the Chargers would go a long way in shaking that stink off the franchise. Rarely is Los Angeles outmatched at quarterback and head coach, but the combo of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid (with DC Steve Spagnuolo) is greater than Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh. The Bolts’ 2024 defensive results were puffed up by some sub-par passers on the other sideline. The 2025 pass rush lost some teeth from a group that got to Mahomes for six sacks in two meetings last year. With pressure on the passer, Mahomes can make magic and I’ll take that no matter where he’s playing.

This AFC West rivalry heads to South America for a Friday game in Brazil. Recent clashes between the Chiefs and Bolts have been snoozefests, with combined scores of 36, 27, and 25 points in the last three encounters. The Chargers will continue to anchor their attack in the run under Jim Harbaugh, facing a talented Kansas City defense led by DC Steve Spagnuolo. Week 1 usually favors the defense, as offenses are working out the kinks. I’ll lean Under in the first international showcase.

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. Last year, the daunting Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a paltry 7.2 yards.. The Chargers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.63 yards-after-the-catch last year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.. The Los Angeles Chargers safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the league last year in covering receivers.

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. Los Angeles's defense profiles as the 7th-best in the league last year when it comes to causing interceptions, averaging 0.93 per game.. The Los Angeles Chargers safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the league last year in covering receivers.

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Chargers, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chargers to pass on 59.9% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been something of pass funnel last year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (33.3 per game) last year.. With a high 82.5% Route Participation% (94th percentile) last year, Tyler Conklin rates among the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.. Tyler Conklin has posted a monstrous 23.0 air yards per game last year: 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to pass on 64.8% of their plays: the highest frequency among all teams this week.. At the present time, the 7th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 5th-best in the league last year.. With a remarkable 9.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (82nd percentile) last year, Isiah Pacheco places as one of the leading pass-game running backs in football in picking up extra yardage.

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Chargers, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chargers to pass on 59.9% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been something of pass funnel last year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (33.3 per game) last year.. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.5%) versus wideouts last year (67.5%).

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 35.2% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week.. When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Los Angeles's safety corps has been outstanding last year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 35.2% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week.. When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Los Angeles's safety corps has been outstanding last year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and running stats reduced) on account of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We should be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this week's contest.. While Justin Herbert has been responsible for 11.0% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played last year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Los Angeles's run game in this game at 19.8%.. Justin Herbert's running effectiveness (6.89 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league last year (80th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks).

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. At the present time, the 7th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.. With a terrific tally of 8.3 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (100th percentile), Patrick Mahomes stands as one of the top running quarterbacks in the NFL last year.

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Chargers, who are -3-point underdogs.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 40.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. The leading projections forecast the Chargers to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The Chargers have run the 4th-fewest plays in football last year, averaging just 55.5 plays per game.. The Kansas City Chiefs safeties project as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league last year in regard to defending the run.