Denver @ Kansas City picks

Don’t be fooled by the Kansas City Chiefs’ 15-2 record last season, as Patrick Mahomes & Co. finished just 8-9 ATS for bettors. That mark included a narrow 19-17 win over Vegas in last year’s Black Friday matchup, as well as a 16-14 victory over Denver following a blocked field goal at the buzzer that saved Kansas City from an upset loss as 7.5-point home favorites. The Chiefs are coming off three consecutive Super Bowl appearances, and fatigue is bound to set in for Andy Reid’s team this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos have built off a 10-7 campaign (12-6 ATS) by adding Pro Bowl tight end Evan Engram and bolstering their already elite defense with linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga. I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver is leading the AFC West by the time Christmas rolls around, so I’ll take the Broncos at +4.5.