Kelce has logged 40+ receiving yards in 12 of 15 games this year. While he'll have third-string QB Chris Oladokun throwing him the ball, inexperienced passers often rely on outlet options like tight ends. He'll also see a higher target share since No. 1 WR Rashee Rice was just placed on the IR and the Chiefs will likely have a passing game script since they are 13.5-point underdogs. The Broncos have been vulnerable against tight ends, allowing the seventh-most receiving yards to the position. Kelce had 91 receiving yards against Denver when these teams clashed in Week 11 and I expect a big performance from him in what might be his final home game at Arrowhead.
When handicapping games with inexperienced QBs, one overlooked angle is their tendency to take more sacks. These signal-callers generally aren't used to the speed of NFL pass rushers and struggle with their processing and pocket awareness. That bodes poorly for Chiefs QB Chris Oladokun who makes his first career start against a Broncos stop unit that has piled up a league-high 63 sacks. Pro Bowler Zach Allen leads all NFL defensive lineman with 66 pressures and has picked up at least half a sack in seven of his last 11 games. He'll push the pocket against a banged-up Chiefs line and get to Oladokun.
Nix has thrown for more than 290 yards in four of his last five games which includes a Week 11 clash against the Chiefs. The primary reason we're seeing a lower passing yards total for Nix this week is due to expected game script with the Broncos 13.5-point faves. That said, I think we'll still see plenty of throws from Nix since Denver has struggled to run the ball effectively with J.K. Dobbins on the IR. The Chiefs have a solid run defense but are 23rd in DVOA against the pass so expect the Broncos to rely on their aerial attack to move the ball. Keep in mind that in Denver's biggest blowout wins of the year, Nix threw for 247 yards against Dallas and 326 yards versus Cincinnati.
This sets up as another game with a lopsided time-of-possession script. Kansas City ran just 43 offensive plays last week compared to 70 for Tennessee, and a similar dynamic could be in play again. The big-name Bronco options like RJ Harvey and Courtland Sutton are tough to buy at current prices, but the Pat Bryant injury opens the door for value elsewhere. Bryant had been carving into Troy Franklin’s target share before suffering a concussion on a short week, making his availability unlikely. With Bryant out of the picture, Franklin’s role should expand. He has quietly scored five touchdowns over his last nine games, and his usage trend is pointing up. Franklin has a realistic path to becoming the No. 2 option in the passing game this week and could lead the team in receiving yards. This is the same receiver who was seeing double-digit targets before the bye and posted 84 yards on four catches and eight targets against Kansas City back in Week 11.
Franklin was Bo Nix’s top target for most of the season, but Pat Bryant started to dig into that target share over the last four games. Bryant suffered a scary injury last week and is unlikely to suit up on Xmas Day. That should pump Franklin’s number up. He’s recorded four or more catches in six of the last eight, including the previous two games. He caught four of eight balls for 84 yards vs Kansas City back in November. You can find Over 3.5 receptions for Franklin as pricy as -106, so shop around for the best return.
This sets up as a solid bounce-back spot for both defenses. The Chiefs are allowing just 15 points per game at home and should have their foot on the gas in their home finale. Denver’s defense is also primed to rebound after an uncharacteristic outing. They rank at or near the top of the NFL in many key defensive categories and should be in bully mode against this extremely watered-down Kansas City offense. Three straight Chiefs’ games have stayed below this mark, with those games seeing an average combined score of just 31.3.
Don’t be fooled by the Kansas City Chiefs’ 15-2 record last season, as Patrick Mahomes & Co. finished just 8-9 ATS for bettors. That mark included a narrow 19-17 win over Vegas in last year’s Black Friday matchup, as well as a 16-14 victory over Denver following a blocked field goal at the buzzer that saved Kansas City from an upset loss as 7.5-point home favorites. The Chiefs are coming off three consecutive Super Bowl appearances, and fatigue is bound to set in for Andy Reid’s team this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos have built off a 10-7 campaign (12-6 ATS) by adding Pro Bowl tight end Evan Engram and bolstering their already elite defense with linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga. I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver is leading the AFC West by the time Christmas rolls around, so I’ll take the Broncos at +4.5.
The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 61.7% red zone pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.1 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 61.5% red zone pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 134.8 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 5th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (60.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Broncos.. The model projects the Denver Broncos to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The 7th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a staggering 59.5 per game on average).. As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Denver Broncos grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year.. This year, the porous Chiefs defense has been torched for a colossal 75.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-largest rate in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.1 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.1 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.1 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.1 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.
An extreme running game script is indicated by the Broncos being a heavy 13.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.6 per game) this year.. The Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.1 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun.. At a -13-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 135.8 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.
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