Kansas City @ San Francisco props

The model projects the 49ers to be the 9th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The model projects the 49ers to run the 5th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics. Brandon Aiyuk's 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 67.8. Brandon Aiyuk's 3.7 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a noteworthy regression in his receiving skills over last year's 4.7 mark. Brandon Aiyuk's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 74.7% to 57.5%.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.7% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect Juju Smith-Schuster to total 6.9 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 75th percentile when it comes to WRs. While Juju Smith-Schuster has accounted for 8.4% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Kansas City's offense in this week's contest at 18.5%. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 8th-best in football this year. Juju Smith-Schuster's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 64.6% to 77.7%.

The 49ers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.3 plays per game. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (35.8 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast George Kittle to accumulate 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs. George Kittle has been a key part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 23.6% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs. George Kittle's receiving talent has improved this year, notching 5.7 adjusted catches vs a mere 4.0 last year.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have just 125.6 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week. Kareem Hunt profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, catching a measly 74.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 21st percentile. The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The model projects the 49ers to run the 4th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics. Deebo Samuel's 60.8% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a meaningful regression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 69.3% rate. This year, the strong Chiefs defense has surrendered a measly 58.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Kansas City's CB corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.

The 49ers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.3 plays per game. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (35.8 per game) this year. Jordan Mason's 54.1% Route Participation% this year reflects a noteworthy gain in his air attack workload over last year's 6.5% rate. Jordan Mason's receiving performance has gotten a boost this season, averaging 1.3 adjusted receptions compared to just 0.3 last season. Since the start of last season, the deficient Chiefs pass defense has conceded a whopping 86.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.2% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.7% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week. Travis Kelce has run a route on 87.4% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends. The model projects Travis Kelce to accumulate 9.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.

Justin Watson has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Kyle Juszczyk has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Noah Gray has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Ricky Pearsall has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Jauan Jennings has gone over 2.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.