Arizona @ Chicago props

This week, Roschon Johnson is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 75th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.3 targets. Roschon Johnson has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 10.1% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs. Roschon Johnson ranks as one of the leading pass-game RBs this year, averaging a remarkable 2.3 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 75th percentile. This year, the weak Arizona Cardinals pass defense has conceded a staggering 87.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 4th-largest rate in the NFL.

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bears being a 4.5-point favorite in this game. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chicago Bears to pass on 48.2% of their downs: the lowest frequency on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see just 126.7 plays on offense called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cardinals, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.1 per game) this year. The Bears O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in football. Our trusted projections expect Trey McBride to accrue 9.1 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among tight ends. Our trusted projections expect Trey McBride to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack in this game (29.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.7% in games he has played). Trey McBride's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this year, totaling 4.7 adjusted catches vs a measly 3.1 last year.

The leading projections forecast Cole Kmet to garner 5.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 86th percentile among tight ends. With a high 19.7% Target Share (92nd percentile) this year, Cole Kmet places among the tight ends with the most usage in the NFL. Cole Kmet's receiving performance has gotten a boost this year, compiling 5.1 adjusted receptions vs a mere 3.0 last year. Cole Kmet's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 74.3% to 84.0%.

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in football. Michael Wilson has played on 83.1% of his team's snaps this year, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts. The Chicago Bears safeties project as the worst collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in football. This year, the poor Bears pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 84.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 9th-largest rate in football. The Chicago Bears safeties project as the worst collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

Greg Dortch has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Tyler Scott has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Darnell Mooney has gone over 2.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Rondale Moore has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Khalil Herbert has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Elijah Higgins has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

D'Onta Foreman has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 9 games.