Seattle @ Tennessee props

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Seahawks, who are favored by 3 points. The predictive model expects the Seahawks to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Seattle Seahawks have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.5 plays per game. Noah Fant's 17.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 24.6. Noah Fant's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 78.4% to 74.1%.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans to pass on 56.1% of their chances: the 10th-lowest frequency on the slate this week. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Titans are forecasted by the model to run only 61.8 total plays in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week. The 4th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Titans this year (just 54.9 per game on average). The Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects DeAndre Hopkins to accrue 8.9 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts. DeAndre Hopkins slots into the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 75.2 figure this year.

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.9% pass rate. The predictive model expects D.K. Metcalf to earn 7.7 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers. D.K. Metcalf has been in the 89th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a monstrous 64.1 mark this year. With a fantastic 4.5 adjusted catches per game (83rd percentile) this year, D.K. Metcalf stands as one of the top wide receivers in the game in the NFL. This year, the shaky Tennessee Titans pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 71.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the worst rate in the league.

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.9% pass rate. Kenneth Walker has played on 55.0% of his team's snaps this year, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to RBs. Kenneth Walker's 85.1% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a significant growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 77.5% rate. The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 4th-worst safety corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script. Derrick Henry's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 84.3% to 93.1%. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Seattle's group of safeties has been terrible this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in football.

Tyler Lockett has gone over 4.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 3.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Zach Charbonnet has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Tyjae Spears has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Chris Moore has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Treylon Burks has gone over 2.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.