Arizona @ Pittsburgh props

The Steelers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 53.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game. The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.

The model projects the Arizona Cardinals offensive approach to skew 1.9% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 56.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week. James Conner has run fewer routes this season (41.2% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (61.5%). James Conner's receiving skills have diminished this year, totaling a measly 1.7 adjusted catches vs 3.5 last year. The Steelers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.9%) vs. RBs this year (69.9%).

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to run the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. In this game, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 85th percentile among RBs with 4.3 targets. Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack this season (13.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (6.3%). Jaylen Warren's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this year, notching 3.4 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 1.8 last year. The Cardinals pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (87.2%) versus running backs this year (87.2%).

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to run the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. In this contest, Diontae Johnson is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.8 targets. With a RATE1-RATE2 point growth in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Diontae Johnson has been more heavily incorporated in his offense's passing game. With a remarkable 4.5 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) this year, Diontae Johnson ranks as one of the top WRs in the league in the league. This year, the poor Cardinals pass defense has allowed a whopping 70.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-worst rate in the league.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan. Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals. Our trusted projections expect Trey McBride to garner 7.0 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile among tight ends. Trey McBride has been a more important option in his team's air attack this year (17.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (7.2%). With an excellent 3.9 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) this year, Trey McBride stands among the leading TEs in the pass game in football.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan. Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals. With an exceptional 93.7% Route Participation% (92nd percentile) this year, Marquise Brown has been among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. This week, Marquise Brown is forecasted by the projections to land in the 87th percentile among WRs with 8.0 targets.

Greg Dortch has gone over 3.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Rondale Moore has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Najee Harris has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

George Pickens has gone over 3.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.