Los Angeles @ New England props

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive gameplan to lean 2.1% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays. The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a running game script. With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Gerald Everett has been utilized much less in his team's air attack. Gerald Everett's receiving performance has declined this season, notching a mere 2.8 adjusted catches compared to 3.8 last season.

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive gameplan to lean 2.1% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays. The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a running game script.

The Patriots are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script. The model projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (40.2 per game) this year. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 9th-worst in the NFL.

The Patriots are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script. The model projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (40.2 per game) this year. In this week's contest, Rhamondre Stevenson is anticipated by the model to place in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.4 targets. Rhamondre Stevenson has been one of the leading RBs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 3.4 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

The Patriots are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script. The model projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (40.2 per game) this year. DeVante Parker has gone out for fewer passes this season (85.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (68.8%). As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 9th-worst in the NFL.

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league (65.3% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are anticipated by the predictive model to call 67.0 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. In this game, Austin Ekeler is anticipated by the projection model to position himself in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.3 targets. The Patriots pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (90.2%) versus RBs this year (90.2%). When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, New England's safety corps has been lousy this year, ranking as the 8th-worst in the league.

The Patriots are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script. The model projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (40.2 per game) this year. In this game, Hunter Henry is projected by the projections to finish in the 82nd percentile among TEs with 4.5 targets. Hunter Henry's 29.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 81st percentile for tight ends.

Mike Gesicki has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Ezekiel Elliott has gone over 1.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Jalen Guyton has gone over 2.5 in 1 of his last 8 games.

Quentin Johnston has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Tyquan Thornton has gone over 2.5 in 2 of his last 9 games.