Green Bay @ Detroit props

The Detroit Lions have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 60.9 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off. The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 10.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 31.5% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 8.2 adjusted catches per game this year represents a remarkable progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 6.7 rate.

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Lions, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Packers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.8 per game) this year. David Montgomery has been used less as a potential target this season (38.0% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (56.7%). David Montgomery's receiving talent has declined this season, accumulating just 0.8 adjusted catches vs 2.1 last season. David Montgomery's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 88.0% to 63.4%.

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Packers are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their standard approach. The leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers as the 2nd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. A.J. Dillon has run a route on 45.4% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs. A.J. Dillon's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 71.2% to 78.7%.

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Packers are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their standard approach. The leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers as the 2nd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The projections expect Romeo Doubs to total 7.3 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 81st percentile among WRs. With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Romeo Doubs has been more heavily relied on in his offense's air attack.

The Detroit Lions have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 60.9 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off. The leading projections forecast Sam LaPorta to garner 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs. Sam LaPorta has been in the 95th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 45.6 mark this year. Sam LaPorta ranks as one of the top pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an excellent 4.9 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

The Detroit Lions have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 60.9 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off. The predictive model expects Jahmyr Gibbs to accumulate 5.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among RBs. Jahmyr Gibbs slots into the 98th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 25.3 figure this year. With an outstanding 4.6 adjusted receptions per game (99th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs stands among the top pass-game running backs in football.

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Packers are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their standard approach. The leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers as the 2nd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. In this week's game, Tucker Kraft is projected by the projections to secure a spot in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.1 targets. With an outstanding 84.5% Adjusted Completion% (80th percentile) this year, Tucker Kraft stands as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among tight ends.

Kalif Raymond has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Christian Watson has gone over 3.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Josh Reynolds has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jameson Williams has gone over 2.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Malik Heath has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Jayden Reed has gone over 3.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Ben Sims has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Patrick Taylor has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.