New York 3rd AFC East7-10
Denver 3rd AFC West8-9
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New York @ Denver props

Empower Field at Mile High

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Tyler Conklin Receptions Made Props • N.Y. Jets

T. Conklin
tight end TE • N.Y. Jets
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.2
Best Odds
Over
+123

The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The leading projections forecast Tyler Conklin to accrue 5.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends. With an exceptional 16.2% Target Share (87th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin rates as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in the league. Tyler Conklin has been among the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 3.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 78th percentile. Since the start of last season, the shaky Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered a staggering 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 8th-largest rate in the NFL.

Tyler Conklin

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.2
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.2

The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The leading projections forecast Tyler Conklin to accrue 5.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends. With an exceptional 16.2% Target Share (87th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin rates as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in the league. Tyler Conklin has been among the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 3.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 78th percentile. Since the start of last season, the shaky Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered a staggering 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 8th-largest rate in the NFL.

Garrett Wilson Receptions Made Props • N.Y. Jets

G. Wilson
wide receiver WR • N.Y. Jets
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
6
Best Odds
Over
-140
Prop
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection
6
Best Odds
Over
-140
Projection Rating

The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Garrett Wilson's 98.6% Route Participation Rate this year indicates a a noteworthy progression in his passing offense utilization over last year's 86.4% mark. In this week's game, Garrett Wilson is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 96th percentile among wide receivers with 9.6 targets. Garrett Wilson has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an excellent 5.5 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 87th percentile. The Denver Broncos pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.5%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (68.5%).

Garrett Wilson

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 6
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
6

The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Garrett Wilson's 98.6% Route Participation Rate this year indicates a a noteworthy progression in his passing offense utilization over last year's 86.4% mark. In this week's game, Garrett Wilson is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 96th percentile among wide receivers with 9.6 targets. Garrett Wilson has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an excellent 5.5 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 87th percentile. The Denver Broncos pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.5%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (68.5%).

Breece Hall Receptions Made Props • N.Y. Jets

B. Hall
running back RB • N.Y. Jets
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.5
Best Odds
Over
-165
Prop
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection
2.5
Best Odds
Over
-165
Projection Rating

The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. In this week's contest, Breece Hall is forecasted by the model to rank in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.7 targets. The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the worst collection of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Breece Hall

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.5
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.5

The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. In this week's contest, Breece Hall is forecasted by the model to rank in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.7 targets. The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the worst collection of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Courtland Sutton Receptions Made Props • Denver

C. Sutton
wide receiver WR • Denver
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4
Best Odds
Over
-120

Courtland Sutton has run a route on 91.2% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile among WRs. The model projects Courtland Sutton to accumulate 6.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Courtland Sutton has been among the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 5.0 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 80th percentile. Courtland Sutton's 74.2% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a a noteable growth in his receiving skills over last season's 59.4% rate.

Courtland Sutton

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4

Courtland Sutton has run a route on 91.2% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile among WRs. The model projects Courtland Sutton to accumulate 6.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Courtland Sutton has been among the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 5.0 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 80th percentile. Courtland Sutton's 74.2% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a a noteable growth in his receiving skills over last season's 59.4% rate.

Marvin Mims Jr. Receptions Made Props • Denver

M. Mims Jr.
wide receiver WR • Denver
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.38
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Over
+134
Under
-180
Prop
2.5 Receptions Made
Season Avg.
1.38
Best Odds
Over
+134
Under
-180

Marvin Mims Jr. has gone over 2.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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