Hawai'i vs Stanford   Picks & Props

Without their top five pass-catchers from a season ago, Hawai'i's Run-and-Shoot won't click against a Stanford defense ranking 23rd in returning production. Stanford's slow, run-heavy offensive approach will keep the clock ticking.

Hawai'i is likely without its top five wideouts from a season ago, and Audric Harris is the most likely candidate to fill the WR1 void. The former high school teammate of quarterback Micah Alejado already has a good connection with his signal caller and has every chance to shine in a pass-happy system.

Another upset win against Stanford might not be in the cards, but Hawaii's passing attack can keep it close. The Rainbow Warriors return one of the best G6 QBs in Micah Alejado, who can take advantage of a Cardinal defense that ranked 107th in EPA per pass on defense last season.

Stanford returning 12 starters has people calling this a "revenge game," which is hilarious in the year of our lord 2026. This is Tavita Pritchard's first season as head coach, and while returning that many players is impressive, the landscape of college sports has changed dramatically. Meanwhile, Hawai'i is being disrespected despite having Micah Alejado back under center. Alejado was electrifying last season despite playing through an early-season ankle injury suffered in this matchup. If he is fully healthy and has improved his craft, losing star receiver Jackson Harris may not matter. With Stanford adding virtually nothing this offseason, Hawai'i is an attractive look.

My power ratings make the Stanford Cardinal around a 4.5-point favorite. A 1.5-point difference might not sound like a big overlay, but when you’re dealing with a key number of 3, it’s enough for me to make the Cardinal a best bet. Last year’s meeting between the two teams saw Stanford lead 10-0 early on the road. The Cardinal still led 20-17 in the fourth quarter and were deep in Hawaii territory, but an interception changed momentum. Hawaii got two late FGs to win 23-20. I bring up last year’s game because I thought Stanford was the better team (outrushed Hawaii 177-96) and should have won. Now the Cardinal go from a long flight to hosting Hawaii with revenge.