Dallas @ Phoenix picks

The Mercury are simply too short-handed to be 6-point favorites, despite being at home. Without Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally, the intended three-headed monster in Phoenix is down to only Alyssa Thomas. As brilliant as she is, she is not enough to justify this spread.

At some point, many years from now, a certain segment of WNBA fans may need to acknowledge Paige Bueckers is the best player of the last two drafts. We say "many years from now" not because it is not already clear that could become reality, but because it will take them that long to acknowledge it. Bueckers has cleared this lofty prop in five of her last six games despite some relative shooting struggles. As long as she remains underrated, there is value in betting on her.

Hesitation is understandable. An assists prop at 10.5 is absurd. But this is Alyssa Thomas we are talking about. More specifically, this is Alyssa Thomas with Kahleah Copper now in the lineup. In six games together this season, Thomas has averaged 10.8 assists and cleared this prop in three games, falling short on Thursday by the hook. This is a huge number, but at plus-money, it is worth betting on.