College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

Tulsa thrives on attacking off the dribble, either leading to kickout 3-point shots or free throws. 

That’s bad news for a UNLV defense ranked in the 37th percentile or worse at defending rim attacks and attack-and-kick actions. 

The Rebels rank 340th in FT rate allowed since February 1, and Tulsa ranks Top 5 in 3-point accuracy and Top 15 in FT%.

UNLV relies heavily on transition baskets. Tulsa’s ability to make shots and get to the line negates that, and the Golden Hurricane defend those opportunities well.

Tulsa will control the tempo and build an advantage via treys and FTs.  

The Iowa Hawkeyes could not clear this team total against Clemson despite four free throws in the final 30 seconds. A game with only 54 possessions will cash every Under. There will be more possessions against the Florida Gators — No. 29 in pace this season — but Iowa will still try to slow it down, its best hope at keeping this close.

Arizona has been blowing teams out all season, defeating 12 high-major opponents by 13+ points. The Aggies beat Villanova by outrebounding them 37-27 and scoring 42 points in the paint. They won't do that against Arizona who is significantly bigger and is sixth in the country in rebounding rate. The Wildcats also rank second in 2-point defense (43.5%) and will stifle an Aggies attack that relies heavily on interior scoring. On the other side of the floor, Utah State needs to create chaos by forcing turnovers but the Wildcats have broken superior press defenses like Houston and Iowa State. 

The Lobos are averaging 81.5 ppg over their last 10 games with a 54.7% effective field goal percentage in that span. Those numbers should scare the Revolutionaries, who rank 140th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. I’m taking New Mexico to cover at home tonight.

The Lobos are averaging 81.5 ppg over their last 10 games with a 54.7% effective field goal percentage in that span. Those numbers should scare the Revolutionaries, who rank 140th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. I’m taking New Mexico to cover at home tonight.

Oklahoma State showed that it plays just as high-scoring a brand of basketball even with its top scorer suspended against Davidson, and Wichita State isn't afraid to run with opponents when it has to. The Cowboys have hit the Over in seven straight games and with the Shockers game to play along, I like the Over again tonight.

Trent Perry is a constant green light on offense. The ball goes in. It doesn’t come back out. He can get to the rim and knock it down from outside. He’s scored 15 or more in three straight outings and has attempted 10 or more FGAs in all of those games. 

Both UCLA and UConn thrive in the halfcourt, playing with patience that ticks deep into the shot clock. There’s a ton of motion, away screens and off-ball movement, which takes time to set up. Neither is an explosive 3-point attack, nor do they thrive on fastbreaks or tempo. Sub-140 totals were 1-5 Over/Under through the first two days of the NCAA Tournament. Going back to last year’s Big Dance, sub-140 totals have gone Under in 13 of 18 games.

Both teams are trending toward the Under: Saint Joe’s is 9-16 O/U in its last 15, while Cal is 2-5 O/U in its last seven. 

The Hawks rank 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, 14th in effective field goal defense, and 24th in three-point defense since February 20. Their perimeter defense will come in handy against a jumpshot-reliant Cal team that doesn’t grab its own misses (318th in OREB). 

The Bears check in at 56th adjusted defensive efficiency during that span and will limit a poor-shooting Hawks offense (30.8% from deep) that doesn’t get to the stripe (13.8 free throws per game).

Texas Tech puts a chokehold on Alabama in transition with a national best defense in that area and will keep the Tide from scoring regularly in the halfcourt. Nate Oats schemes well enough for a long portion of the game, but eventually the damn breaks and Alabama can’t defend well enough on the other end.