College Basketball Picks

Baylor finished the regular season with an ugly 6-12 record in Big 12 play, one game behind Arizona State. The Sun Devils are 9-3 ATS over their last 12 games with upset wins against Cincinnati, Texas Tech, and Kansas. The Bears beat ASU 73-68 last month but that was in Waco and they had a sizzling 65.7 eFG%. They shoot significantly worse in away games (48.3 eFG%) than at home (59.3 eFG%), so expect regression at a neutral site today. The Bears rank just 15th conference play in turnover rate which is bad news against an ASU squad that ranks fourth in opponent TO rate. The Sun Devils also have the advantage inside, where they can exploit Baylor's lack of size.

Yes, Arizona State did lose to Baylor on Feb. 21, but it was in Waco and by only five points. The Sun Devils have been giant-killers at times, knocking off Kansas and Texas Tech in the last 30 days alone. With the Bears checking in 297th in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric, I'll take ASU to at least keep things close if not win outright.

Stanford beat Pitt by 10 when they met on Feb. 25, and I have no problem laying the points with the Cardinal in the rematch. Stanford rides a four-game win streak into this one, while the Panthers are 5-12 SU in 2026. Expect the Cardinal, who shot below their season average from the 3-point line vs. Pitt last time, to be a little bit better in that area here en route to victory.

Every Pitt live-ball turnover is a fastbreak bucket waiting to happen. Ebuka Okorie dropped 34 on Pitt two weeks ago and Stanford's transition attack is elite enough to turn this game into a track meet the Panthers can't keep up with. The Cardinal also have much more motivation headed into this matchup needing virtually one win to assure itself a tournament bid. Play to -6.

There are clear paths to both teams scoring regularly in the halfcourt. SMU, with Boopie Miller, ranks in the top 75th percentile of basketball in both attack + kick, along with big + cut actions. Syracuse can’t defend either. On the other side, Syracuse has a clear path to scoring on pick-and-pop actions with Donnie Freeman. Expect points.

The Terps were bullied for 42 points in the paint by Illinois and now face a sizable Oregon Ducks frontcourt. Bigs Nate Bittle and Kwame Evans Jr. combined for 28 points in the win over UM in January, in which the Ducks tallied half of their 64 points inside. Not only is Maryland outmatched by that interior offense, but the Terps don’t shoot well enough to overcome Oregon’s protection in the paint. Game models call for a Ducks win by four points.

Mercyhurst has been a cover star, going 5-0-0 against the spread in its last five, and 8-2-0 ATS in the last 10. 

The Wright State Raiders also rank in the top five in several conference defensive metrics and have a big edge on the glass at both ends. Look for some championship game nerves early and a lower-scoring battle than this number suggests.

The Wildcats' offensive rating spiked in the final five games, fueled by hot outside shooting. Northwestern knocked down almost 42% of its 3-point looks, and now it faces a Penn State defense getting buried from beyond the arc. 

Eleven of the Saints’ last 12 games have produced a total of 130+ points.