Ace Bailey's points prop is trading at 12.5 (-110) on the Over, and I think we have a strong edge here, as I price this closer to -165. Outside of the game against Sacramento where he left early with an injury, Bailey has consistently logged 28–31 minutes in the Jazz’s starting lineup and is taking double-digit shot attempts. When your points line is essentially the same as your average field-goal attempts, that’s an immediate eye-catcher. Add in an easy matchup against a weak Nets defense on Thursday, and this sets up well. Noah Clowney or Michael Porter Jr. will be his primary defender — and both are among the worst defenders in the NBA.
Kyle Filipowski’s points prop is sitting at Over 10.5 (+102), and we're firing at that number because I think it should be much closer to -225. Filipowski logged elevated minutes in the Jazz’s last two games against the Rockets, and he was part of the closing lineup that sealed the upset in their most recent game. I don’t expect him to hit 30 minutes against the Nets, but 27 feels very realistic — and if he gets 27 minutes, the Over 10.5 points becomes more than attainable.
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