NBA Picks

The Orlando Magic may enter this matchup on a seven-game winning streak, but I’m backing the Atlanta Hawks as 2.5-point favorites. In my numbers, this line should be closer to Hawks -5. Atlanta matches up well with Orlando across the board. Jalen Johnson provides a strong defensive matchup for Paolo Banchero at the point-forward spot, while the Hawks also have the perimeter defenders needed to make life difficult for Desmond Bane. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is one of the better defenders in the league at chasing players around screens and disrupting them at the point of attack, which directly challenges how Bane prefers to generate his offense. It’s also difficult for Orlando to simply shift more of the playmaking load onto Jalen Suggs, as he’ll likely see a lot of Dyson Daniels, who thrives at creating turnovers and disrupting ball handlers.

Atlanta’s nine-game winning streak has been fueled by a defense allowing just 104 points per game, which is No. 2 in the NBA.

Golden State has dominated Washington in recent memory, grabbing six consecutive victories, covering tonight's spread in each.

In terms of shooting, the Warriors's feeble 112.3 points per game when playing on the road settles in as the 8th-worst in the league this year.. The 5th-slowest pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Warriors.

The Trail Blazers have been the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games as the visting team.. The Trail Blazers will likely see a decline in possessions in this game from competing against the 4th-most sluggish pace team in the league this year (the Nets).. The matchup vs. Brooklyn is a tough one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted just 2.5 foul shots per game this year when the Nets are at home (3rd-least in the NBA).

The Trail Blazers have been the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games as the visting team.. The Trail Blazers will likely see a decline in possessions in this game from competing against the 4th-most sluggish pace team in the league this year (the Nets).

The Phoenix Suns are trading as 9-point underdogs against the Boston Celtics, and that’s a number I’m willing to take as I make the Suns closer to 7-point underdogs. Boston’s defense is designed to force opponents into low-efficiency mid-range shots while Neemias Queta protects the rim in drop coverage. Against most teams, that’s an effective formula, but it’s less problematic for Phoenix. Devin Booker and Jalen Green are both comfortable operating in the mid-range, and it’s actually one of Booker’s preferred scoring areas. The Celtics also rely heavily on switching defensively, which can create opportunities for teams with strong guard depth. That plays into Phoenix’s hands, as they have multiple ball handlers capable of attacking mismatches and creating advantages. I’m not necessarily expecting the Suns to win this game, but they have enough offensive firepower to keep things competitive. 

Despite the Suns losing by 16 the last time they played the Celtics, this spread is too massive. Boston will win, but I like Phoenix to keep it closer as a team that has a rock-solid 39-25-3 ATS record.

Five of the last six meetings have comfortably cashed the Under. This season, they’ve battled it out three times, and all of those meetings hit the Under.

Zion Williamson has averaged 25.3 points per game over the last 12 games while on his home court, 3.7 more than he's averaged in all games this season at home.. The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 2nd-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games on their home court.. The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should increase possessions for the New Orleans Pelicans.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, and the New Orleans Pelicans grade out 3rd-best in in the NBA when playing at home with 13.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

The Grizzlies are too injured to be remotely competitive, as evidenced by their active 11-game losing streak. This will help a scuffling Bulls squad get back in the win column while covering as a 6-point favorite.

This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting PGs have scored 17.0 points per game (8th-lowest in the league) against the Memphis Grizzlies, resulting in a tough matchup for offensive productivity.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Chicago Bulls grade out 7thworst in in the league with a mere 10.3 offensive boards per game this year.

The Lakers have won five straight and eight of their last nine, thanks to the second-best offensive rating (122.5), sixth-best defensive rating (110.1), and third-best net rating (12.3). Meanwhile, the Rockets rank 19th in offensive rating (112.6), 20th in defensive rating (117.1), and 19th in net rating (-4.5) in that span.

The Los Angeles Lakers have been the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.

With Kawhi Leonard listed as doubtful and trending toward sitting against the San Antonio Spurs, it’s difficult to see how the Clippers keep this game within 9.5 points. Leonard’s absence removes a massive portion of their offensive usage and shifts the burden of shot creation directly onto Darius Garland. That’s a tough spot, especially with Stephon Castle likely hounding him on the perimeter. If Garland struggles to consistently create advantages, the Clippers could have a hard time generating offense. The bigger issue is roster construction. Many of the Clippers’ role players are built to operate off the gravity of star creators like Leonard and James Harden rather than creating their own shots. Without that engine driving the offense, their scoring options become very limited. I believe the Spurs should be trading closer to 12-point favorites in this matchup.

 

With respect to threes, the LA Clippers's stellar 39.3% rate of made threes as the home team ranks 4th-highest in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The 7th-speediest tempo home offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the LA Clippers.. The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 9th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the LA Clippers.