NBA Picks

It’s the second night of a back-to-back for the Pistons, coming off an overtime game where the starting lineup logged heavy minutes. That creates a real possibility that Jalen Duren and Tobias Harris either see reduced workloads or are ruled out entirely—both scenarios that would open the door for increased usage for Jenkins. Jenkins, a second-year player who started the season on a two-way contract, isn’t someone the team is likely to manage conservatively in this spot. He’s the type of player who can absorb extra opportunity without hesitation. I have Jenkins priced at -205 to clear the number, and that projection assumes just 30 minutes—which is well below the minutes he could see. If his role expands at all, the edge only grows. He’s proven he can capitalize on opportunity, which is exactly why he’s now on a standard NBA contract. At 17.5, the line simply feels too low for the shot volume he should see against the Pelicans.

New Orleans may be paltry, but the Pelicans are 9-1 ATS over their last 10, and the Pistons team will once again be without superstar point guard Cade Cunningham. Take NOLA to make it a game in the Motor City. 

The Hornets have quietly been the NBA’s best defense lately, holding 12 of their last 14 opponents to 111 points or fewer for an NBA-best average of 103.7 PPG allowed in that span. That drops even lower at home, where they face a Knicks offense that drops off on the road, where they rank 24th in scoring since 2026 began. With both teams playing at a slow pace, this sets up perfectly for a Knicks team total Under.

Jalen Brunson’s assists prop is sitting at +116 for over 7.5, and that’s a number I’m more than willing to back—I have it priced closer to -150. This game in Charlotte is essentially a pick’em, and if it stays competitive into the fourth quarter, Brunson’s role only becomes more valuable. In close games, he dominates the ball and initiates nearly every action, which naturally drives up his potential assist volume. The matchup also works in his favor, particularly through Karl-Anthony Towns. He has a clear size and strength advantage over Moussa Diabaté on the interior, which should lead to efficient scoring opportunities off Brunson’s passes. Another subtle edge is Charlotte’s defensive approach—they prioritize contesting without fouling. That keeps possessions ending in shot attempts rather than free throws, which is ideal for converting assists. 

I’m willing to bet on Paolo Banchero’s efficiency carrying him in this matchup against a Sacramento Kings frontcourt that simply doesn’t have the personnel to handle his physical, downhill style. Even if this game turns into a blowout—as it very well could—he can still clear this number in limited minutes based on how effective he should be on a point per-minute basis. If the game stays even somewhat competitive and Banchero sees any fourth-quarter run, he's going way over this number. The free-throw line is also a major factor here. Sacramento doesn’t have a clean answer for defending Banchero without fouling, which should lead to easy points at the line. With Orlando slipping in the standings, this also feels like a spot where Banchero asserts himself as the best player on the floor and takes control offensively. I have him priced at -170 to clear this number, making this a strong play.

The Kings check in as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.. The Kings have played at the 10th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games while playing on the road.. The Sacramento Kings will likely suffer a reduction in possessions today from competing against the 9th-least up-tempo pace home offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Magic).