NBA Picks

LaMelo Ball has found the right balance of scoring and playmaking in what has quickly turned into a breakthrough season in Charlotte. As a result, the Hornets have reeled off win after win, and I like the LaMelo points prop tonight against an Indiana squad missing Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith.

Ball made seven of his 12 shots in his previous meeting with the Pacers, and he’s reached the 20-point mark in six of his last nine contests, while being flanked by Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel. There are some creaking gaps in the Indiana defense, too, with the Pacers giving up 120.7 PPG, fifth-most in the league.

The Charlotte Hornets have been the 2nd-least efficient shooting team in the league while on their home court this year.. The least up-tempo tempo home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Hornets.

Dosunmu has now started his last six games with the Timberwolves, first in place of Anthony Edwards and now in place of Jaden McDaniels. Dosunmu has scored at least 17 points in each of those six games, averaging 18.8 points.

Let me grab the home team here on the moneyline. The 76ers are coming off another 150+ point performance against the Wizards and are catching Minnesota on the back end of a back-to-back against a good Detroit team. I'll say fatigue plays a factor, and the Sixers' offense stays hot. 

With Jock Landale out, Okongwu gets extra run again versus a bad Nets defense. Okongwu has scored 16 and 20 points in the past two games and with his minutes peaking with Landale out, player projections call for between 14 and 16 points versus Brooklyn tonight. My number comes out to 14.8 points with respect to a much higher ceiling knowing the Nets suck inside and out.

The Nets rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year with respect to shots from behind the three-point arc.. The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 5th-most up-tempo pace in the league this year, which should raise possessions for the Nets.. The matchup against the Atlanta Hawks may be a favorable one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted a colossal 3.3 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (7th-most in the league).

The Chicago Bulls may have packed it in for the season, but they're still playing close enough to opponents to cover these big spreads, while the New York Knicks are 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games overall. New York should win this game tonight, but I'm taking Chicago to cover.

Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 12.5 rpg last month and has Over 11.5 boards in 12 of his last 17 games.

The Bulls rank 23rd in opponent rebounds and 29th in opponent field goal attempts, which sets up plenty of scoring and rebounding opportunities for KAT and the Knicks.

Poeltl is averaging 14.3 points and 7.4 rebounds over his last nine games, and he’s got a great shot at a big night vs. the declawed Grizzlies. Memphis ranks 28th in opponent points in paint per game and dead last in rebounding rate since the All-Star break.

Sandro Mamukelashvili is averaging a career-best 11.2 ppg and has been even better down the stretch, logging Over 11.5 points in six straight games and averaging 17.7 ppg during that span.

The depleted Memphis Grizzlies have already given up on their season, losing 15 of their last 17 games while giving up 125.7 ppg during the skid.

Sam Hauser has taken on an expanded role in 2025-26, averaging career highs in minutes (24.7), points (9.1) and triples (2.5). He finished with 23 points in Wednesday’s win over the Miami Heat, as he knocked down 5-of-7 triples. On the season, Hauser has been far more productive as a scorer on the road than at home, averaging 7.9 points at TD Garden and 10.2 at all other locations. He’s recorded 8+ points in 40 of 73 games overall, including 23 of 38 on the road.

The Celtics have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league while playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Kevin Durant hit the Over in three of his previous four contests at home, where he is averaging 24.2 PPG. The Jazz are considered an easy matchup for opposing small forwards, allowing 26 points per night to the position.

Durant should ball out tonight as the Rockets look to extend their win streak to five games.

Alperen Sengun has 33 double-doubles in 67 appearances this season, including six in his last nine. While rebounds are his bread and butter, Sengun is also logging 6.2 dimes per game – the second-most at his position.

The Jazz have allowed 128.3 papg during their current 1-11 run, so Sengun and the Rockets will have no trouble padding their stats tonight.

Dallas sits 24th in defensive rating since the All-Star break and was busted for points like a pinata in March, giving up almost 123 per game last month. The Mavericks watch opponent rack up the fourth most assists (28.3 apg) and wrangle the fifth most rebounds (55 rpg). Bane and the Magic beat Dallas 115-114 at home on March 5 and he finished with eight rebounds and three assists (along with 14 points) in 38 minutes of action. Tonight’s projections have his assists between 4.4 and 5.0 while his rebounding forecast bounces between 4.5 and 5.4 boards.

This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 4.9 three attempts per game (3rd-lowest in the NBA) against the Magic, designating this as a difficult matchup.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks grade out 8thworst in in the league with only 10.4 offensive rebounds per game this year.. The matchup against Orlando is a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team's starting PGs have attempted just 2.2 foul shots per game this year when the Orlando Magic are on the road (3rd-least in the NBA).

The Kings have seen the Over cash in three of their last four, while NOLA has topped the Over in three if its last five.

The 6th-slowest tempo away team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Pelicans.

Despite being without Cade Cunningham since March 17, Detroit hasn’t missed a beat, going 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS over its last 10 games. With four straight wins over Philly, take the Pistons to cover on the road.