NBA Picks

In a typical matchup, Ausar Thompson shadowing LaMelo Ball would be a major obstacle for Ball to clear his points total—but Friday’s game is anything but typical. With only two games left in the regular season, the Pistons have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. It wouldn’t be surprising if they limit their starters to around 20 minutes and prioritize rest. That’s a key factor for Ball. The Hornets still need this win for playoff positioning, so his minutes should be secure. It also means he likely won’t face Thompson’s point-of-attack defense for the entire game and could see 10+ minutes without him on the floor. The over 22.5 points is priced at -105, but I make it closer to -160, which gives us a solid edge.

The matchup vs. Charlotte is a good one for scoring; when the Hornets are playing at home, opposing starting PFs have totaled the most buckets per game in the league this year (8.7).. The Detroit Pistons check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

I came up empty on this exact prop on Wednesday when the Cleveland Cavaliers faced the Atlanta Hawks, but I’m going back to it because many of the same matchup advantages still apply—plus there are added benefits on Friday. For starters, this line was 8.5 at plus money on Wednesday. Now it’s dropped to 7.5 and is still priced at plus money. That’s a full assist lower, despite a key change in context. On Wednesday, Harden was sharing the backcourt with Donovan Mitchell. On Friday, Mitchell is out for rest, which shifts even more usage and playmaking responsibility onto Harden. So you’re getting a lower number, the same plus-money price, and increased opportunity—that’s an easy button to hit. I price the over 7.5 assists at -140.

Okongwu finished with just five boards versus the Cavs last night but with both teams' shooting cooling off and Cleveland sitting center Jarrett Allen, Okongwu will clean the glass in a must-win game for the Hawks. He’s averaged 7.5 rebounds on 12.8 rebounding chances over the past 23 games and grabbed eight or more rebounds in three of his last five games (two games with seven). Player projections range from 8.0 to 10+ boards tonight.

The Pacers are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games. The Pacers aren’t a team surviving on effort alone. The Pacers can score, and they do it efficiently. In a game where Philadelphia is allowing 118.7 points per game, and Indiana is giving up 121.9, stops are going to be hard to find.

In terms of shooting, the 76ers's unimpressive 46.3% field goal rate ranks 9th-weakest in the NBA this year.

Bridges shot well before opting not to (he dished out six assists), finishing 4 for 4 with two triples and 10 points last night. He’s hitting at a 53% clip over his last eight outings, putting up 13 or more points in six of those contests. Bridges has played well versus Toronto, scoring 11, 14, 15, and 30 points in four meetings this season. Tonight’s projections paint the same picture they did yesterday, with Bridges forecasted for at least 14 points.

New York is 9-1-0 against the spread against the Raptors in the last 10 meetings. 

The formula has been brutally simple: in every game, New York has outscored them from 3-point range and beaten Toronto up on the glass, winning the rebounding battle each time.

Boston sports one of the best defenses in the Association. The Celtics allow the fewest points per game (107) and own the fourth-best defensive rating (111.8). The C’s also sport the slowest pace, and with a 29-51 mark, they’ve hit the Under at a higher percentage than any other team (63.8%).

New Orleans will be without Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson and Yves Missi, while key scorer Saddiq Bey is listed as questionable. Rookies Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen will have to shoulder the load offensively, and my money’s on Boston’s world-class defense locking down a road team led by a pair of rookies.

The Boston Celtics will likely see an increase in possessions today from being pitted against the 5th-fastest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 5 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA as the home team this year.

Victor Wembanyama has compiled 31.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.8 more than he's compiled over the course of the year.. The Spurs are expected to see a rise in plays today from sharing the court with the 4th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA this year (the Dallas Mavericks).. The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup against Dallas is a strong one for threes; when the Mavericks are the visiting team, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied the 9th-most 3-point shots per game in the NBA this year (2.4).. The Spurs are expected to see a rise in plays today from sharing the court with the 4th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA this year (the Dallas Mavericks).. The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Chicago is 23rd in defensive rating over the last 10 contests, allowing more than 127 points per game in that span. More than 70 of those points are coming from opposing guards. Chicago is down to eight healthy bodies and many of those guys are D-League callups. On top of that lack of talent, the Bulls are playing the second of back-to-back games after winning in Washington Thursday. Before a recent lull in offensive activity, Suggs was averaging around 14 points per outing. His player projections for Friday expect one better from the Gonzaga product, with his scoring forecast ranging from 15.2 to 16.1 points.

I like Banchero Over 8.5 Rebounds with projections flirting with nine rebounds and Chicago playing the second night of back-to-back games and losing Guerschon Yabusele to an injury last night. The Bulls are extremely shorthanded inside and Paolo is averaging 8.3 rebounds on 14.3 rebound chances since the All-Star break. 

With the Thunder clinching the No. 1 seed, they've given most of their rotation players the night off. Four starters, including MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, have been ruled out along with several key bench players. OKC has just eight players available for tonight with three of them on two-way contracts. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have listed all five starters, including three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic, as questionable. With so much offensive firepower missing from both teams, this game could get ugly. Since we don't know who will suit up for Denver, I'll fade the Thunder on their team total. 

This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied 3.9 three attempts per game (4th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets, creating a challenging matchup.. The 10th-most lethargic pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).. Over the last 20 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 2.6 free throws per game (5th-lowest in the league) against the Nuggets, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.

The Rockets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA this year.

The Warriors have taken four of five in this head-to-head, and aside from the last meeting, have won by at least 26 points in the other three wins.

But these aren't the same Warriors. And while they should win, they're really just trying to get Steph Curry up to full speed before the play-in. That's no stress, and definitely not a blowout.

When it comes to shooting, the Warriors's unimpressive 111.8 points per game ranks 3rd-fewest in the league over the last 20 games.. The 6th-slowest pace road team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Warriors.. The matchup vs. the Kings may be a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team's starting PFs have attempted just 2.4 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (least in the NBA).

The Portland Trail Blazers have compiled a 22-17 record at home in 2025-26, and they’ve won five of their last six games at the Moda Center. Also, Portland just ended a four-game losing streak against the Los Angeles Clippers last month, beating them 114-104 on the road. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is coming off an 18-point defeat to the OKC Thunder, and they’re just 19-21 away from the Intuit Dome.

The matchup vs. the Trail Blazers is a difficult one for three-pointers; the opposing team's starting PFs have compiled the 4th-lowest three percentage in the NBA this year (29.6%).. The LA Clippers have played at the 3rd-slowest tempo in the league this year.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Clippers grade out 4thworst in in the NBA with just 9.6 offensive boards per game this year.

Player projections are also cooling on James’ playmaking versus the Suns. His assist forecasts top out at 8.1 with most sitting shy of eight dimes against an inflated assist O/U. Marcus Smart could return and take the ball out of LeBron's hands. Smart gives L.A. much-needed backcourt depth and allows James to play his natural position off the ball, which makes him more of a shooter rather than a facilitator. Before Luka got hurt, James was averaging around seven assists during the Lakers’ red-hot run through March.

The Suns have been the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 25 games.. The Suns have played at the 4th-most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 25 games.. The Lakers have played at the 10th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Suns.