Dallas @ Sacramento Picks & Props
DAL vs SAC Picks
NBA Picks
Max Christie is flying under the radar right now, because his role and minutes have quietly increased — and he’s been producing. Over his last five games, Christie is averaging 31.4 minutes and 17.8 points per game. If he plays around 30 minutes on Tuesday, and there’s no reason to think he won’t, we have a clear edge at the current price, which I believe should be closer to -170 than -115. Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are among the weakest defenders in the league, and they’re likely to be Christie’s primary matchups, as Sacramento’s defensive focus will be on Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis. That should leave Christie with plenty of clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, especially as Dallas collapses the defense to exploit the Kings’ poor perimeter defenders.
Sacramento is dead last in the NBA in rebound rate (47%), watching opponents wrangle an average of almost 56 boards per contest. The Kings’ frontcourt is also missing a major glass cleaner with Keegan Murray sidelined. This game could see an accelerated pace of play, with the Mavs moving at the fifth-highest tempo in the NBA, which means more possessions – and more rebounding opportunities. Neither team is a solid shooting squad, especially Sacramento, which is hitting at less than 44% from the floor over the last three games. On the season, Anthony Davis averages more than 17 rebounding chances and has posted 12 or more boards in seven of his last dozen appearances since the start of December. Tuesday’s NBA player projections range from 11 rebounds to closer to 14 boards.
DAL vs SAC Consensus Picks
57% picking Dallas
Total Picks DAL 362, SAC 276
43% picking Dallas vs Sacramento to go Under
Total PicksDAL 261, SAC 194
DAL vs SAC Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
POINTS SCORED
DeMar DeRozan
(SF)
u19.5 Points Scored
17.7 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.8
DIFFERENCE
16.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Zach LaVine
(SG)
o20.5 Points Scored
22.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
13.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Precious Achiuwa
(C)
o6.5 Points Scored
6.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
6.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Maxime Raynaud
(C)
o11.5 Points Scored
12.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
5.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Anthony Davis
(PF)
o25.5 Points Scored
25.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-1.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Daniel Gafford
(C)
u8.5 Points Scored
8.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-2.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Cooper Flagg
(SF)
o21.5 Points Scored
22.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-2.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Max Christie
(SG)
u12.5 Points Scored
12.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Naji Marshall
(SF)
o13.5 Points Scored
14.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-3.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Russell Westbrook
(PG)
o14.5 Points Scored
14.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.0
DIFFERENCE
-5.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Brandon Williams
(PG)
o12.5 Points Scored
12.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-6.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Dennis Schroder
(PG)
o11.5 Points Scored
11.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-7.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Precious Achiuwa
(C)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
5.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
17.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Zach LaVine
(SG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
4.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
9.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Daniel Gafford
(C)
u6.5 Total Rebounds
5.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
7.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Anthony Davis
(PF)
o12.5 Total Rebounds
13.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
6.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Russell Westbrook
(PG)
o6.5 Total Rebounds
6.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
5.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Brandon Williams
(PG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
5.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Max Christie
(SG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
4.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
4.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Maxime Raynaud
(C)
o7.5 Total Rebounds
8.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
3.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Naji Marshall
(SF)
u5.5 Total Rebounds
5.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-1.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Cooper Flagg
(SF)
o6.5 Total Rebounds
6.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-5.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
DeMar DeRozan
(SF)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-10.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Anthony Davis
(PF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
15.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Zach LaVine
(SG)
o2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
12.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Precious Achiuwa
(C)
u0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
4.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Cooper Flagg
(SF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
3.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Max Christie
(SG)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
DeMar DeRozan
(SF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-0.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Naji Marshall
(SF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-4.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Russell Westbrook
(PG)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-4.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Dennis Schroder
(PG)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
-6.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Maxime Raynaud
(C)
u0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-7.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Brandon Williams
(PG)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Daniel Gafford
(C)
o0.5 Total Assists
1.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
6.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Precious Achiuwa
(C)
o0.5 Total Assists
1.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
3.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Brandon Williams
(PG)
o3.5 Total Assists
4.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
3.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Naji Marshall
(SF)
u3.5 Total Assists
3.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
2.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
DeMar DeRozan
(SF)
o3.5 Total Assists
4.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-1.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Max Christie
(SG)
u2.5 Total Assists
2.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-2.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Anthony Davis
(PF)
u3.5 Total Assists
3.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
-7.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Russell Westbrook
(PG)
o6.5 Total Assists
6.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.0
DIFFERENCE
-7.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Zach LaVine
(SG)
o2.5 Total Assists
2.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-8.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Maxime Raynaud
(C)
u1.5 Total Assists
1.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
-11.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Dennis Schroder
(PG)
o4.5 Total Assists
4.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-11.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Cooper Flagg
(SF)
o4.5 Total Assists
4.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.0
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
DAL vs SAC Trends
DAL vs SAC Top User Picks
Dallas Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hoosier | 6-4-0 | +17750 |
| 2 | TheTotalMan | 9-1-0 | +9250 |
| 3 | rhythmpants | 7-3-0 | +8450 |
| 4 | tmd122567 | 6-4-0 | +7700 |
| 5 | pastorhollywood | 7-3-0 | +7470 |
| 6 | hallwl | 7-3-0 | +7260 |
| 7 | fsu93 | 7-3-0 | +6600 |
| 8 | checkers | 6-4-0 | +6600 |
| 9 | glen2003 | 6-4-0 | +6300 |
| 10 | talco50 | 6-4-0 | +6200 |
| All Mavericks Money Leaders | |||