NBA Picks

Alperen Sengun is trading at -124 for the Over 18.5 points, and that’s a number I’m comfortable hitting, as I price it closer to -210. This is the Rockets’ fourth game in six days, and Kevin Durant has logged 37+ minutes in each of the last two games, while Houston enters as a 15.5-point favorite against the Wizards. This spot sets up perfectly for a Sengun game. The Rockets can afford to dial back Durant’s minutes, and Sengun draws a favorable matchup against a Wizards frontcourt starting Tristan Vukcevic at center, with very little size behind him off the bench beyond Will Riley. Washington’s defense is young and struggles with rotations and screen communication, which should leave Sengun rolling to the rim through an empty paint repeatedly.

Kevin Durant just torched the Magic for 40 last week, and then he went off for another 32 points on Saturday night against the Heat. Durant is averaging 28 PPG on the road this season, which is just above his season average of 26.2 points. 

The matchup vs. Boston is a challenging one for scoring; when the Boston Celtics are away from home, the opposition's starting SGs have compiled the 4th-lowest FG% in the league this year (38.1%).. The 5th-slowest pace offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Bucks.. The Celtics have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Milwaukee Bucks.. The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).. The matchup against the Boston Celtics is a difficult one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted just 2.0 foul shots per game this year (6th-least in the league).

The 5th-slowest pace offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Bucks.. The Celtics have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Milwaukee Bucks.. The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).. This year, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 2.3 foul shots per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Boston Celtics, making it tough to draw fouls.

Ace Bailey has been extremely aggressive in the minutes he’s received over the past two games, and despite the Utah Jazz openly tanking, he’s the one player they need to continue developing. That means running offense through him and consistently giving him meaningful minutes—you can’t stall his development for the sake of the tank. That mindset is part of why he wasn’t interested in being drafted by Utah in the first place. With Keyonte George back in the lineup, Christian Braun should be pulled toward the point of attack, leaving Julian Strawther as the primary defender on Bailey. That’s a clear advantage for Bailey. At 6'10", he should be able to comfortably hunt his shot against the smaller 6'6" Strawther and take advantage of Nikola Jokic’s drop coverage to generate clean mid-range looks. I price the Over 15.5 at -145. 

Kyle Filipowski has compiled 14.6 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.6 higher than he's compiled overall this season.. The Jazz have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.. The Jazz will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-quickest pace away team in the league over the last 5 games (the Nuggets).. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Jazz rank 9th-best in in the NBA with 12.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

The Clippers have won three of their last four road games, with those victories coming against some good teams. Meanwhile, the Warriors are still without Stephen Curry and have dropped three of four at the Chase Center.

Brook Lopez is trading at -110 for over 9.5 points, and that’s a number worth backing, as I price it closer to -180. While it’s the second night of a back-to-back for the aging veteran, we still have a solid edge on this prop even after accounting for a potential reduction in minutes due to the scheduling spot. Darius Garland is expected to make his Clippers debut on Monday, and he’s exactly the type of pick-and-roll ball handler who can consistently create high-quality looks for Lopez. While Garland’s presence may slightly lower Lopez’s usage, it should significantly improve his shot quality. Additionally, the Warriors often deploy an undersized, switch-heavy defense, which should allow Lopez to take advantage of favorable matchups in the paint and on the perimeter.