NBA Picks

Rudy Gobert has fallen short of this prop in the Minnesota Timberwolves’ last three games. Then why boldly take it now? Because Gobert has continued to thrive on the boards, averaging 15.7 rebounds in those three games. And more often than not, his rebounding leads to putback opportunities.

Donte DiVincenzo has been shooting with a ton of confidence over his last three games, knocking down 14 of 29 attempts from deep—just under 50% on high volume. That hot shooting should continue against the Memphis Grizzlies, where he’s set up to see plenty of wide-open looks playing off the gravity of Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle. Memphis simply doesn’t have the individual defenders to consistently contain either star, which forces help and creates space on the perimeter. DiVincenzo thrives as a relocator in the half court, and that skill should pay off against a young, inexperienced Grizzlies defense. On top of that, Memphis likes to play with pace, which should generate additional transition opportunities and easy jumpers. With the over 12.5 points priced at +100—well below my fair price of -155—this number is too good to pass up.

 

De’Aaron Fox is trading at +100 for the over 15.5 points, and that number is far too generous given that I price it closer to -195. This is easily my favorite prop on the board. With Joel Embiid out, the 76ers are expected to start Andre Drummond at center, and that immediately creates a problem. Drummond is forced to play a deep drop because of his limited lateral quickness, a coverage Fox should punish all night with open mid-range jumpers. If Drummond tries to step up, Fox has the elite speed to blow by him and get to the rim. On top of that, with both Embiid and Paul George unavailable, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe are shouldering a massive offensive workload. It’s difficult to ask them to be primary creators and then also contain one of the fastest guards in the league on the defensive end. That combination makes this number simply too low.

 

The 76ers’ defensive rating without Joel Embiid is a dreadful 117.1.

Luke Kornet is averaging a career-best 15.5 PRA, and he’s gone for 12+ in 38 of 50 games overall, including six of his last nine. This line is wildly mispriced, and Kornet could see additional run if San Antonio runs away with the game in this favorable matchup.

OKC boasts the league’s No. 1 Defensive Rating and covers 57% of their road games. Facing a "tanking" Bulls “G-League” roster, the Thunder’s elite defensive efficiency and transition offense should pull away for a double-digit cover.

The Thunder have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.. The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to see a rise in opportunities today from facing the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Bulls).. The matchup against the Chicago Bulls may be a positive one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 5.9 free throws per game over the last 5 games (4th-most in the league).

Rui Hachimura is at his best when the L.A. stars are on the floor and drawing extra attention from the defense. Tonight's game is the first time in a long time that L.A. has had all its weapons at 100%. New Orleans allows 43.4% of its points against from 3-pointers and Rui has scored twin 14-point efforts in his two matchups with NOLA this season. He’s forecast for as many as 12 points tonight.

James has dished out six or more dimes just twice in the six post-break outings with his potential assists slipping from 12.0 pre-break to 8.7 in this current span. That said, the New Orleans Pelicans defense is dreadful and allows an average of 28 assists. LeBron’s forecasts range from 6.2 to 7.5 assists and he handed out eight the last time he faced NOLA.

The Phoenix Suns hit the road after playing eight of nine at home, while the Sacramento Kings are back home after five straight on the road. Phoenix is just 3-6-1 ATS across its last 10, and the Kings will be motivated to avoid the season sweep by a division rival after dropping three straight to Phoenix. The team with the fewest wins in the Association can complete the upset as the double-digit home dog, making this a calculated, home-run wager.

The Sacramento Kings are missing Domantas Sabonis and Dylan Cardwell, which means Maxime Raynaud will see ample playing time, leading to a productive night as a scorer and rebounder. Raynaud has 12 double-doubles on the season, and four of them have come across his last six outings.