NBA Picks

The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).. The matchup against Philadelphia may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Philadelphia 76ers are playing at home (7th-least in the NBA).

Brooklyn is a brutal 1-5-1 ATS on the tail-end of a back-to-back this year. A rested Detroit team will have revenge on the mind after a stunning 107-105 loss to the Nets last weekend. Expect a result closer to the Pistons' 130-77 and 125-107 wins over Brooklyn from earlier this year.

This year, opposing starting SGs have shot 27.6% on 3-pointers (2nd-weakest in the NBA) against the Detroit Pistons, resulting in a challenging matchup.. The Nets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the league this year.. The Pistons have played at the 7th-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Brooklyn Nets.. The Brooklyn Nets rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Miami is one of the hotter teams in the Association since the break, going 7-2 SU and ATS. Washington, meanwhile, has lost eight straight (2-6 ATS) since beating up on the pitiful Pacers in back-to-back games following the All-Star Game. The Heat are 4-1 SU and ATS vs. the Wizards dating back to last season.

As it relates to getting to the free-throw line, the Wizards's unimpressive 21.0 free throw attempts per game while playing on the road rates 4th-worst in the league this year.

Daniel Gafford has totaled 13.0 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.4 more than he's totaled over the course of the year.. The 3rd-speediest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.. The Hawks have played at the quickest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks.. In regard to getting to the free-throw line, the Dallas Mavericks's terrific 27.1 free throws per game places 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 25 games.

The Hawks check in as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

The Bucks check in as the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA on their home court this year.. The matchup against Phoenix is a strong one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SGs have attempted an enormous 3.8 free throws per game this year when the Phoenix Suns are the visiting team (2nd-most in the league).

The Bucks check in as the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA on their home court this year.

Alperen Sengun is trading at +102 for the Over 18.5 points, and that’s a number I’m happy to attack as I price it closer to -205. This is my favorite prop on the board for Tuesday. Sengun draws a strong matchup against the Raptors, especially with Jakob Poeltl listed as questionable due to illness. Even if Poeltl does suit up, dealing with Sengun’s physicality and post game while not fully healthy will be a difficult task. If Poeltl sits, Toronto has shown a willingness to go smaller and even use wings at the five, but that strategy is unlikely to hold up against Sengun. In a league where many centers are pulled out to the perimeter, Sengun remains one of the few bigs who can consistently seal defenders, use his strength, and punish teams with traditional post play. Given how the Raptors prefer to defend, he should have plenty of room to operate in the areas of the floor where he’s most effective.

This year when they are away from home, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged 26.1% on 3-pointers (2nd-lowest in the NBA) against the Rockets, making this a hard matchup.. The 6th-least up-tempo pace visiting team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Raptors.. The Houston Rockets have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer plays for the Toronto Raptors.. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Raptors grade out 5thworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

When it comes to offense, the Celtics's unimpressive 101.8 points per game away from home ranks lowest in the NBA over the last 5 games.. This year, the other team's starting SFs have shot 36.0% on field goals (weakest in the league) vs. the San Antonio Spurs, labeling this as a challenging matchup.. The Celtics have played at the most lethargic tempo in the league this year.

The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 8th-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games.. The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 7 games as the home team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

When it comes to shots from downtown, the Portland Trail Blazers's unimpressive 33.7% rate of converted threes ranks 2nd-fewest in the league this year.. This year, opposing starting PGs have averaged 11.3 shot attempts per game (fewest in the league) against the Charlotte Hornets, labeling this as a tough matchup.. The Hornets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games while traveling, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Trail Blazers.. This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 2.9 foul shots per game (3rd-lowest in the league) against the Charlotte Hornets, making it tough to draw fouls.

The Hornets are expected to get a boost in opportunities today from being pitted against the 3rd-speediest pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Portland Trail Blazers).. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Charlotte Hornets rank 2nd-best in in the league with 13.9 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.. The matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a colossal 6.5 free throws per game over the last 10 games (2nd-most in the league).

With both groups also playing at a top-five pace, the combination of extra possessions and awful stop units sets up as a high-scoring affair in Sacramento. 

Offensive rebounds maintain possession and result in added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers rank 1stworst in in the NBA away from their home court with only 8.0 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

This year, the opposition's starting SGs have totaled 10.6 field goal attempts per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Bulls, making this a difficult matchup.. The 4th-least up-tempo pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Golden State Warriors.. As a team, the Golden State Warriors have been lousy at drawing fouls recently: worst in the NBA over the last 25 games with a lowly 17.0 foul shots per game.. The matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls is a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a mere 1.7 free throws per game this year (least in the NBA).

The Chicago Bulls will likely experience a decrease in plays in this game from competing against the 4th-most sluggish pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Golden State Warriors).. The Chicago Bulls rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).. This year when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PFs have attempted 3.1 foul shots per game (9th-lowest in the league) vs. the Warriors, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.

Luka Doncic is trading at -115 for the Over 31.5 points, and that’s a number worth attacking given that I price it closer to -170. This sets up as a rivalry game between the Lakers and the Timberwolves, and with the Lakers off yesterday and another off day tomorrow, there’s little reason to expect any limitation on Doncic’s workload. In what should be a competitive matchup, 38+ minutes is very much in play. Minnesota does have an excellent defender in Jaden McDaniels to throw at Doncic, but this bet is more about volume than efficiency. Doncic is always willing to take on a heavy scoring load, and that tendency only increases when things get personal. He has a well-documented rivalry with Rudy Gobert, and whenever he gets Gobert switched onto him in isolation, the shot is almost always going up. In those moments, Doncic has a habit of turning into a flamethrower from deep.

The Los Angeles Lakers check in as the 6th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The 7th-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Los Angeles Lakers.. The Timberwolves have played at the 8th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to more opportunities for the Lakers.