Oklahoma City @ Indiana picks

Despite still scoring 34 points in 36 minutes, Gilgeous-Alexander was much more passive in Game 2. He shot the ball only 21 times – compared to 30 FGAs in Game 1 – and didn’t attack the rim as much, instead kicking the ball out. With the series heading in Gainbridge Fieldhouse, OKC’s offensive numbers are expected to take at least a slight dip. Gilgeous-Alexander’s numbers also take a hit away from home, scoring 28.3 points per away game in the tournament – compared to 31.8 ppg in OKC. Early Game 3 projections call for 29.7 to 31.1 points from SGA on Wednesday night. And looking at the prop markets for Game 3, we’re seeing some movement away from the opening number of 34.5, with some shops down to 33.5 O/U. Based on those models, SGA’s scoring forecast should be around 32 points which should have the Under 34.5 O/U priced at -168.

Lu Dort looked like he had unlocked OKC’s offense this season. The defensive ace hit 41.2% of his 3-pointers on 5.8 attempts per game. Welcome back to reality this postseason, it seems. Dort has continued to shoot, taking 6.3 attempts from beyond the arc per game through 18 games. Hitting just 32.5% of them can hardly be defended with sample-size concerns. Dort has taken 114 threes in these playoffs. That is enough of a sample size to think his shooting has not actually leveled up. And when Dort’s shooting cannot be trusted, he becomes an offensive liability for Oklahoma City.

Role players shoot better at home. Myles Turner has shot 51.5% from deep at home this postseason, compared to just 28.2% on the road. Pascal Siakam has hit 50% of his 3-pointers at home in these playoffs, an improvement on his already impressive 40.6% on the road. Obi Toppin has hit 36.8% of his long-range looks at home in the playoffs, but just 30.6% on the road. Role players shoot better at home. And that often means primary players end up with better stats, as well. If Turner, Siakam and Toppin can be expected to hit an additional couple 3-pointers in Indianapolis, then that should be a couple more assists for Haliburton.

This year, the opposition's starting SGs have logged 19.0 points per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Indiana Pacers, marking this as a good matchup for offensive efficiency.. The Thunder have played at the 6th-fastest tempo in the league this year.. The Pacers have played at the 6th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which should lead to increased possessions for the Oklahoma City Thunder.. The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).. Cason Wallace has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 24.3% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season.

Luguentz Dort has attempted 5.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game when playing away from home this year, ranking in the 79th percentile among all players in the NBA.. Out of all players in the NBA, Luguentz Dort measures in the 78th percentile for playing time, averaging an enormous 29.1 minutes per game this year.. The Thunder have played at the 6th-fastest tempo in the league this year.. The Pacers have played at the 6th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which should lead to increased possessions for the Oklahoma City Thunder.. The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).

This year, the other team's starting PGs have totaled 4.6 three attempts per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Pacers, marking this as a challenging matchup.. In regard to getting to the foul line, the Oklahoma City Thunder's lackluster 21.0 free throw attempts per game ranks 9th-worst in the league this year.. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium tends to decrease player production across the board.

Tyrese Haliburton has tallied 18.6 points per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA in this category: 88th percentile.. Among all players in the NBA, Tyrese Haliburton slots into the 95th percentile for shot attempts from downtown, putting up 7.6 per game this year.. Out of all players in the NBA, Tyrese Haliburton slots into the 92nd percentile for playing time, logging a whopping 33.9 minutes per game this year.. As it relates to offense, the Pacers's stellar 118.4 points per game at home settles in as the 5th-highest in the league this year.. This year, opposing starting PGs have averaged 7.7 3-point attempts per game (most in the league) against the Thunder, labeling this as a favorable matchup.

Among all players in the NBA, Tyrese Haliburton slots into the 95th percentile for shot attempts from downtown, putting up 7.6 per game this year.. Out of all players in the NBA, Tyrese Haliburton slots into the 92nd percentile for playing time, logging a whopping 33.9 minutes per game this year.. In terms of shots from downtown, the Pacers's impressive 39.6% rate of converted threes rates highest in the league over the last 10 games.. This year, opposing starting PGs have averaged 7.7 3-point attempts per game (most in the league) against the Thunder, labeling this as a favorable matchup.. The Pacers have played at the 6th-quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games at home.

Out of all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren comes in at the 76th percentile for playing time, registering a monstrous 28.0 minutes per game this year.. The Thunder have played at the 6th-fastest tempo in the league this year.. The Pacers have played at the 6th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which should lead to increased possessions for the Oklahoma City Thunder.. The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).

The Thunder have played at the 6th-fastest tempo in the league this year.. The Pacers have played at the 6th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which should lead to increased possessions for the Oklahoma City Thunder.. The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).

Out of all players in the NBA, Luguentz Dort measures in the 78th percentile for playing time, averaging an enormous 29.1 minutes per game this year.. The Thunder have played at the 6th-fastest tempo in the league this year.. The Pacers have played at the 6th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which should lead to increased possessions for the Oklahoma City Thunder.. The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).