Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game April 28, 2026
MIN
@
DEN
Mon, Apr 27 • 10:30 PM ET
Jaden McDaniels o16.5 Points Scored (-115)
McDaniels averaged 18.7 points in 16 games without Edwards this season, compared to 13.8 in 57 games alongside Edwards. He takes 3.6 more shots per game with Edwards sidelined, including an average of one additional 3-pointer. These are the reasons McDaniels has topped this prop in 10 of those 16 games without Edwards, two of those exceptions falling short by only the hook.
Know who will despise the Timberwolves’ escalated pace without Anthony Edwards? Nuggets’ star Nikola Jokic. He already looks exhausted. One might wonder if his temper tantrum at the end of Game 4 was in part the result of shoddy judgment thanks to fatigue. Jokic will struggle to get up and down the court with Hyland, Dosunmu, and McDaniels — and their pace will only further sap his legs.
PHI
@
BOS
Tue, Apr 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Joel Embiid o8.5 Total Rebounds (+110)
Embiid played 34 minutes in his first game since April 6 and while his conditioning was poor, he still finished with 10 rebounds. However, he was in position for 21.0 rebounding chances which would normally fetch between 12 and 15 boards for most centers. I expect him to be a bit livelier in Game 5, having shaken off the rust, and with the 76ers guards making a concerted effort to box out, that surplus of rebounding chances converts into actual boards. Player projections sit as high as 10.4 rebounds from Embiid Tuesday.
Joel Embiid played 34 minutes in his first game since April 6, and while his conditioning was poor, he still finished with 10 rebounds. However, he was in position for 21.0 rebounding chances, which would normally fetch between 12 and 15 boards for most centers. I see the 11.5-point spread as something the Sixers can manage. Philly can fight the C's off the glass to keep the second-chance points (and damage) to a minimum. George finished 3-for-3 from 3-point land in Game 4 and made four triples in Game 3. Game script has Philly fighting from behind, prompting plenty of 3PAs from PG.
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ATL
@
NY
Tue, Apr 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Karl-Anthony Towns o3.5 Total Assists (-105)
Karl-Anthony Towns took over as the Knicks' primary playmaker in Game 4. The center set up shop at the top of the key, pulling away interior defenders and dished out 10 assists on 12 potential dimes, finding cutters to the rim and shooters off screen action. KAT holds a size edge over the small Hawks frontcourt, so he's able to see plays develop and finding open hands over the top. New York is trying to get Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges going, which means those guards playing off the ball and making Towns the conduit for this offense. It worked great in Game 4 and the Knicks will stick to it in Game 5.
Towns keeps coming up big for New York. He’s found his spot as a primary passer from the high post, which also makes him a dangerous offensive rebounder as he crashes from outside. The Hawks will eventually have to sag off KAT to plug up the paint and he’s not afraid to let it fly from deep, having made two and three triples in the opening two games of the series.
POR
@
SA
Tue, Apr 28 • 9:30 PM ET
Castle has cleared this prop in every game he has played at least 34 minutes in this series. Per 34 minutes, he is averaging 21.8 points. With a chance to win a postseason for the first time in San Antonio since 2017, expect Castle to play at least 34 minutes.
The Spurs should want to put this series to bed more than a team normally would up 3-1. Victor Wembanyama may be back on the court, but rest will help him recover from his GAme 2 concussion. His shot did not look great in his GAme 4 return, though he did find 12 rebounds in only 34 minutes.
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