Houston Astros

MLB Player Props

Coby Mayo is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.236) may lead us to conclude that Coby Mayo has suffered from bad luck this year with his .210 actual batting average.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 18th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Jason Alexander throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand today. In the past week, Gunnar Henderson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.4% up to 19%. Gunnar Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 11.1% on the season to 28.6% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jackson Holliday is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. Jackson Holliday will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jason Alexander today. Jackson Holliday has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Ryan Mountcastle has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 12.3% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the past week. Ryan Mountcastle has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 97.4-mph average over the past week to his seasonal average of 94.3-mph. In the past week, Ryan Mountcastle's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.8%.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.4°, Dylan Carlson has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 36° angle in the last 7 days. Despite posting a .236 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Dylan Carlson has experienced some negative variance given the .067 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .303.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jordan Westburg ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jordan Westburg is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Jordan Westburg has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 11.3% seasonal rate to 21.7% in the past 7 days. Jordan Westburg has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 101.9-mph average over the past week to his seasonal mark of 93.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Adley Rutschman has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.6-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.8-mph average. Adley Rutschman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, going from 18.4% on the season to 24.3% in the last two weeks. Adley Rutschman has been unlucky this year, notching a .310 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .023 discrepancy.

Greg Allen has gone over 0.5 in 0 of his last 7 games.

Ryan Noda has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.