Houston Astros

MLB Player Props

Gavin Lux has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 4.3% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past 7 days. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Gavin Lux has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 23° compared to his seasonal mark of 8.1°. Despite posting a .274 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gavin Lux has suffered from bad luck given the .031 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .305.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which often leads to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Batting from the same side that Gavin Stone throws from, Yainer Diaz will be in a tough position today. Yainer Diaz has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game. Yainer Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 94.9-mph figure last season has decreased to 91.3-mph.

Chas McCormick's BABIP skill is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Chas McCormick will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Chas McCormick's speed has increased this year. His 28.09 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.67 ft/sec now. Chas McCormick has been unlucky this year, putting up a .267 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .314 — a .047 gap. Chas McCormick has notched a .319 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 83rd percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the opposite that Gavin Stone throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have an edge today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Yordan Alvarez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.7% up to 31.3%.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. Alex MacKay grades out as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is expected to be behind the plate in today's game. Minute Maid Park grades out as the #24 ballpark in Major League Baseball for BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-tallest fences in the league.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 4th-best batter in the majors as it relates to his batting average talent. Freddie Freeman is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Freddie Freeman has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Freddie Freeman has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 92.8-mph over the last two weeks. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Freddie Freeman's 17.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 20.3%.

Last year, Cavan Biggio had an average launch angle of 14.4° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 23.9°. Cavan Biggio is very athletic, placing in the 82nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.5 ft/sec this year.

Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in the majors — generally good for homers. Jake Meyers will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Jake Meyers's launch angle recently (20.6° over the past 14 days) is considerably better than his 14.5° seasonal figure. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 40% to 46.9%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.275) may lead us to conclude that Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance this year with his .233 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage today. In the last 7 days, Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.3-mph over the course of the season to 100.5-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Loperfido in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Joey Loperfido will hold the platoon advantage over Gavin Stone today. Joey Loperfido will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Jeremy Pena's batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in the majors — generally good for homers. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today's game. Jeremy Pena has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 5.1% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Alex Bregman will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Alex Bregman has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 88.5-mph figure. With a 1.81 K/BB rate this year, Alex Bregman has displayed impressive plate discipline, ranking in the 85th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 19th-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Will Smith is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Will Smith will have an edge in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Will Smith tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Will Smith's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 19.4% to 22.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez as the 10th-best batter in baseball when estimating his BABIP talent. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Teoscar Hernandez will hold the platoon advantage over Framber Valdez today. Teoscar Hernandez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 94.6-mph over the last 7 days. Teoscar Hernandez's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (19.8° over the past two weeks) is considerably higher than his 15.1° seasonal mark.

Kike Hernandez will have the handedness advantage over Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Kike Hernandez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.3-mph average to last season's 87.8-mph average. Kike Hernandez has been unlucky this year, putting up a .260 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .293 — a .033 difference.

Andy Pages is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in the majors — generally good for homers. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Andy Pages will have an advantage today. Extreme flyball bats like Andy Pages usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Andy Pages has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 10.6% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last week.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Miguel Vargas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Miguel Vargas tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez. There has been a significant improvement in Miguel Vargas's launch angle from last season's 16.6° to 22.8° this season.

Jon Singleton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Gavin Stone today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jon Singleton will hold that advantage today.

Trey Cabbage has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.