Houston Astros

Picks

The Astros have scored just four runs over their last four games. They are in miserable form at the dish and it's unlikely to get better against Bryce Miller and a strong Mariners bullpen. Seattle should score against Lance McCullers Jr., but they'll likely need a very big number to push this game Over the total.

The Houston Astros have scored three runs or fewer in eight of the last nine while projected starter Lance McCullers Jr. has allowed three runs or more in six straight. That's not a recipe for success against the Seattle Mariners.

Josh Naylor is trading at +570 to hit a home run against Lance McCullers Jr. and the Houston Astros on Wednesday, and you should run to the window to place this bet, not walk. I price Naylor closer to +420 to hit a home run, which means this prop is showing a massive edge at the current number. McCullers is going to try to live at the bottom of the strike zone with his sinker, but Naylor is an excellent low-ball hitter. The upward path of his swing allows him to lift pitches at the bottom of the zone and drive them out of the ballpark with power. If McCullers doesn’t have enough movement on the sinker—especially while dealing with a blister issue—there’s a good chance he leaves a pitch right in Naylor’s nitro zone.

It wasn’t the best start to the season for Julio Rodríguez following the World Baseball Classic, but he’s heated up lately with three home runs over his last six games, and he has a very favorable matchup on Wednesday to keep that streak going. Rodríguez will be facing Lance McCullers Jr., who relies heavily on east-west movement with his sinker-slider combination to generate outs. That matchup fits Rodríguez well because of his swing path. If McCullers’ pitches don’t have sharp enough movement, Rodríguez’s bat stays in the hitting zone long enough to square up pitches moving laterally and barrel them consistently. I price this prop closer to +330, so I’m all over the +410 number.

The Seattle Mariners are trading around -121 on the moneyline against the Houston Astros on Wednesday, and I’m hitting the button on that number without hesitation, as I believe Seattle should be priced closer to -145 in this spot. Lance McCullers Jr. was torched in his last outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers and also dealt with a blister issue during the start. I already like the matchup for Seattle because the Mariners can stack seven left-handed hitters in the lineup, which matches up well against McCullers and his curveball-heavy approach. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if Houston’s struggling bullpen is forced to cover a significant number of innings if the blister issue limits McCullers or forces an early exit.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. The #5 field in the league for boosting home runs to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage against Lance McCullers Jr. today.. Over the past 7 days, Luke Raley's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 22.8% up to 66.7%.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The #5 field in the league for boosting home runs to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park has the smallest outfield in the league — generally good for home runs.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.

Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-tallest fence height (on average) in the league.. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which often leads to less offense.. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.8% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Cal Raleigh will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.

The #5 field in the league for boosting home runs to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Lance McCullers Jr. throws from, Cole Young will have an edge in today's game.. Cole Young's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 39.2% to 44.8%.

Zach Cole's batting average talent is projected to be in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. 18% of the time that Zach Cole has started against a righty hurler since the start of last season, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.. Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-tallest fence height (on average) in the league.. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which often leads to less offense.. In today's matchup, Zach Cole is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.4% rate (80th percentile).

Brendan Donovan's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #5 field in the league for boosting home runs to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Lance McCullers Jr. throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. Minute Maid Park profiles as the #5 field in baseball for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest LF dimensions among all parks.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Braden Shewmake in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Braden Shewmake is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-tallest fence height (on average) in the league.. Braden Shewmake has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits in recent games, lifting balls between -4° and 26° just 30% of the time in the last week's worth of games.

When assessing his batting average ability, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 9th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Minute Maid Park profiles as the #5 field in baseball for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. In the past week's worth of games, Julio Rodriguez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.3% up to 15.4%.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The #5 field in the league for boosting home runs to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park has the smallest outfield in the league — generally good for home runs.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.