Chicago @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. In the past 7 days, Matt Shaw's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.7% up to 12.5%. Matt Shaw has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 96-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal mark of 90.5-mph. When it comes to his batting average, Matt Shaw has had some very poor luck this year. His .222 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .252.

Hitting from the same side that Colin Rea throws from, Ivan Herrera meets a tough challenge today. Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs. Ivan Herrera's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 16.3% to 9.2%. Ivan Herrera's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, decreasing from 9.2% on the season to 3.6% over the past two weeks. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ivan Herrera's true offensive ability to be a .334, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .039 difference between that figure and his actual .373 wOBA.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 16th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.8% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Hitters such as Seiya Suzuki with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Andre Pallante who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage against Colin Rea in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past week, Nolan Gorman's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 109.1-mph in recent games. Nolan Gorman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 48.9% on the season to 87.5% over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willi Castro in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Willi Castro will get to bat from his strong side against Andre Pallante in this game. Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Willi Castro has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .239 rate is a fair amount lower than his .257 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Michael Busch ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Michael Busch is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Michael Busch will have an edge in today's game. Michael Busch has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The switch-hitting Ian Happ will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Andre Pallante. Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.1°, Ian Happ has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 22.4° angle in the past 7 days.

Dansby Swanson's BABIP skill is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Dansby Swanson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Dansby Swanson has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 11.9% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the past 7 days.

As it relates to his batting average talent, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 15th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Sporting a .290 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Nico Hoerner grades out in the 94th percentile. Nico Hoerner has displayed good plate discipline this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile with a 1.35 K/BB rate.

Brendan Donovan has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will be challenged by baseball's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs. In the past 7 days, Brendan Donovan's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%. Over the last 14 days, Brendan Donovan's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (1.6°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 9.1°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Colin Rea throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an edge in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.6% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 8th-best batter in baseball. Kyle Tucker is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Kyle Tucker will have the upper hand in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

Alec Burleson's batting average ability is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Colin Rea in today's matchup. Alec Burleson hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Carson Kelly is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Carson Kelly's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (22° in the past two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 14.1° seasonal mark. Using Statcast metrics, Carson Kelly is in the 93rd percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .369.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold the platoon advantage over Andre Pallante in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Pete Crow-Armstrong has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Masyn Winn is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Masyn Winn has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 94.1-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal mark of 89.3-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Willson Contreras's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 15.1% to 18.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jordan Walker's true offensive skill to be a .307, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .027 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .280 wOBA.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Yohel Pozo will hold that advantage today. Yohel Pozo's 18.2° launch angle (an advanced metric to study a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in the league: 80th percentile.

Victor Scott II has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Thomas Saggese has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.