Atlanta @ New York Picks & Props

The #1 park in the game for suppressing BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field. Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Batting from the same side that Clay Holmes throws from, Ronald Acuna Jr. meets a tough challenge today. Ronald Acuna Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Ronald Acuna Jr. has had positive variance on his side this year. His .497 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .404.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Brett Baty will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Didier Fuentes in today's game. Brett Baty has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Brett Baty tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Didier Fuentes. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Brett Baty will hold that advantage today.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Clay Holmes throws from, Matt Olson will have an edge in today's matchup.

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Extreme flyball hitters like Ozzie Albies tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Clay Holmes. Ozzie Albies has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 91.6-mph average in the last week to his seasonal figure of 88.9-mph. Last year, Ozzie Albies had an average launch angle of 14.2° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 18.4°.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Hitting from the opposite that Didier Fuentes throws from, Juan Soto will have an edge in today's game.

Drake Baldwin is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Drake Baldwin will have the handedness advantage against Clay Holmes today. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Drake Baldwin has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Drake Baldwin has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Clay Holmes throws from, Alex Verdugo will have the upper hand in today's matchup. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alex Verdugo can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Alex Verdugo has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Michael Harris II will have the handedness advantage over Clay Holmes today. Michael Harris II may have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP. Michael Harris II hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Jeff McNeil is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Didier Fuentes throws from, Jeff McNeil will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Jeff McNeil will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Austin Riley is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Austin Riley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's shallowest CF fences today. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Riley tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Clay Holmes.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Brandon Nimmo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Didier Fuentes in today's matchup. Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Nick Allen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Tyrone Taylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Tyrone Taylor will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.307) provides evidence that Tyrone Taylor has had some very poor luck this year with his .273 actual wOBA.

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. The switch-hitting Ronny Mauricio will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Didier Fuentes. Ronny Mauricio will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Marcell Ozuna pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Marcell Ozuna has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.4-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 95.4-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Extreme flyball bats like Starling Marte tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Didier Fuentes. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Starling Marte will hold that advantage in today's game.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Francisco Lindor will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 15th-best batter in the majors. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Hayden Senger will hold that advantage in today's matchup.