Atlanta @ New York picks

The New York Mets will send one of its most consistent starters to the mound tonight, as Clay Holmes (7-4, 3.04 ERA) takes the ball. The Atlanta Braves touched up Holmes for three runs on four hits over 4.2 innings last week, but Holmes’ real issue in that game was his uncharacteristic lack of control. He allowed six walks in the game, by far his worst total of the year. There’s no reason to think that Holmes won’t rebound from that performance. He’s never been a control pitcher – he has allowed 3.9 walks per nine innings for his career – but he has at least tamped down on those issues in recent years. And while the converted reliever hasn’t been going deep on a regular basis for the Mets, he has gone five-to-six innings in nearly all of his starts, and we can expect him to do so again tonight.

Soto enters this matchup with a .253 batting average and an .876 OPS. But he's been a bit unlucky this season, and those numbers could improve soon. The Mets slugger ranks in the 99th percentile in both xBA and xSLG. He'll be a tough matchup for Braves' rookie Didier Fuentes, who is making just his second career start and gave up four runs on six hits to the Marlins in his debut.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 81°.. Hitting from the opposite that Didier Fuentes throws from, Juan Soto will have an edge in today's game.

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting on the slate.. Extreme flyball hitters like Ozzie Albies tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Clay Holmes.. Ozzie Albies has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 91.6-mph average in the last week to his seasonal figure of 88.9-mph.. Last year, Ozzie Albies had an average launch angle of 14.2° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 18.4°.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 81°.. Brandon Nimmo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Didier Fuentes in today's matchup.. Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Austin Riley is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting on the slate.. Austin Riley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's shallowest CF fences today.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Riley tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Clay Holmes.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 81°.. Brett Baty will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Didier Fuentes in today's game.. Brett Baty has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Brett Baty tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Didier Fuentes.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Brett Baty will hold that advantage today.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting on the slate.. Francisco Lindor will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Matt Olson projects as the 18th-best home run hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting on the slate.. Batting from the opposite that Clay Holmes throws from, Matt Olson will have an edge in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting on the slate.. Marcell Ozuna pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Marcell Ozuna has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.4-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 95.4-mph.

Pete Alonso projects as the 9th-best home run batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting on the slate.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting on the slate.. Hitting from the opposite that Didier Fuentes throws from, Juan Soto will have an edge in today's game.